posted September 12, 2008 at 09:21 in NASCAR Free Picks
Bet On NASCAR - Let The Chase Begin!
by Robby Maddux
Sunday's Sylvania 300 (2:15pm EST) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway starts NASCAR's 10-race postseason. So before the green flag waves to begin the 2008 Chase for the Cup, let's have a look at the top-12 drivers eligible for this year's Sprint Cup championship in their respective order of finish heading into the Chase along with starting points, BetUS NASCAR odds to raise the Cup and, of course, your NASCAR betting selection to win the title.
1—Kyle Busch—5080 (+150)
Despite being the most hated driver in the sport, Busch deserves oddsmakers love as favorite and No. 1 seed in the Chase, earning a series-best eight victories (80 bonus points), 15 top-fives and 17 top-ten finishes. Oh yeah, add to his 2008 resume six poles (Cup best tied with Johnson) and only one DNF, all good for a 10.4 average starting spot and stout 9.9 average of finish. He's made a fortune for the online NASCAR betting community.
Boo him all you want but he's proven to be a threat week-in-and-week-out on any type track at any venue. Busch can drive a car to Victory Lane on three tires and a blown engine. He has been the dominant driver in all of NASCAR this season with 18 victories combined in the top three series.
Race car drivers are born to go fast and to be aggressive in doing so to finish first. Busch was definitely born with racing genes and enough talent to be more aggressive than others while maintaining control of his Toyota, often at speeds near 200 mph, which is one of his unique features that compels him to victory and makes fans love to hate him.
Key to victory for Rowdy is stay patiently aggressive. If Busch falls behind early in the Chase he'll have the tendency to become overly aggressive with thoughts in mind it's only a 10-race postseason. And, after Sunday's race at Loudon he may no longer be atop the points because New Hampshire Motor Speedway isn't one of his favorites. In seven career starts, he has posted only one win and three top-fives and no other top-10s with a 15.7 average of finish at The Magic Mile. Keep in mind, Rowdy and Cousin Carl are on probation for the next four events.
2—Carl Edwards—5050 (+250)
Edwards has collected a Cup second-best six victories but has only 50 bonus points heading into the Chase because NASCAR docked him 10 points when his race-winning car failed inspection at Las Vegas on March 2 in the UAW-Dodge 400. He's posted 11 top-fives and 19 top-ten finishes. Edwards has earned only one pole, but has a respectable 12.6 average starting spot but his sole DNF, has assisted in a solid 10.1 average of finish.
Like his rival Busch, Edwards has proven to be a threat every week at any track. Edwards has been extremely strong on 1.5 and 2-mile tracks this season, and with the large number of intermediate tracks on the Chase schedule he gains a huge edge over the field. He’s gelled at the perfect time and brings a lot of momentum into the playoffs, having collected three of his six victories this season in the six races.
Key to victory for Edwards is to continue to dominate the intermediate tracks. There's five of them on the Chase schedule which plays right into his hands, and if he can have strong runs on all five those hands could be raising the Cup. Every driver expects and anticipates to have at least one mulligan during the postseason. If Edwards comes at any place other than an intermediate track, he'll be tough to beat.
3—Jimmie Johnson—5040 (+250)
Johnson has earned a Cup third-best four wins good for 40 bonus points entering the Chase. He's posted 9 top-fives and 14 top-ten outings. Johnson has collected six poles (Cup best tied with Busch) manufacturing a series-best 8.5 average starting position and his only DNF helped build a strong 12.4 average of finish.
Johnson is poised to win back-to-back-to-back titles, bringing a ton of momentum into the Chase with two straight wins heading into New Hampshire. Of course, momentum and the difference between winning or losing in NASCAR wagering is a blown tire or engine away. The two-time defending champion has experience and unless that mo' is somehow broken, Johnson will three-peat as champion.
Key to victory for Johnson is simple. Utilize his experience, stay focused and consistent throughout the Chase.
4—Dale Earnhardt Jr.—5010 (+800)
The perennial fan favorite, in his debut season with Hendrick Motorsports, found Victory Lane only once. Earnhardt Jr. earned 8 top-fives and 13 top-ten finishes. He started on the pole just once but owns a rock-solid 10.3 average starting spot and had zero DNFs, adding to his sound 12.3 average of finish.
Earnhardt Jr. had a strong start to the season with his new team, but hasn’t done much over the second half of the campaign. Last week’s fourth-place run at Richmond was Earnhardt’s first top-five and just second top-10 finish since his win at Michigan which was won on fuel mileage in June.
Key to victory for Earnhardt Jr. must come from above in the form of prayers, which he'll need a lot of to be a threat. Better pit stops and calls from crew chief Tony Eury Jr. would also help.
5—Jeff Burton—5010 (+3000)
The crafty veteran took the checkers just once in 2008 but Burton made the Chase with 4 top-fives and 12 top-ten runs. He failed to start from the pole, which didn't help his 22.2 average starting position. Burton suffered two DNFs, but managed to build a decent 15.7 average of finish.
Burton is normally consistent but doesn’t win enough races to be considered a threat. And even his consistency has fallen off recently. Over the last 12 races Burton has collected only two top-10s.
Key to victory for Burton is to once again find his trademark consistency. Early in the season he posted a six-race string of top 10 runs that placed him atop the standings. A win, or two, and no mulligan's during the Chase would greatly add to the chances of arguably the best active driver never to have won a championship.
6—Denny Hamlin—5010 (+1800)
Hamlin posted one victory this season and started from the pole in as many times. He's put together 9 top-fives and 14 top-ten runs. Hamlin has a 15.1 average starting spot and a solid 15.3 average of finish, despite two DNFs.
Hamlin enters the Chase with three straight third-place finishes, which is scary if you're investing in Hamlin, because his inconsistency this season means he's due to struggle. He finished 12th in last season’s playoffs, and if his inconsistency carries over into the Chase, he'll finish behind them all again.
Key to victory for Hamlin is talk to Earnhardt Jr. about the praying aspect and talk to Burton about how to find consistency.
7—Clint Bowyer—5010 (+4500)
Bowyer was certainly the sleeper to make the Chase this season, doing so by gaining a whopping seven spots in the point standings in last week's regular-season finale. He failed to start from the pole but did find Victory Lane once, while posting 4 top-fives and 12 top-ten finishes. Bowyer has an unimpressive 23.3 average starting position but a much better 15.7 average of finish, thanks to zero DNFs.
Bowyer raced his way into the Chase last week, but it's doubtful he'll showcase that sort of strength during the Chase. He's one-of-three Richard Childress Racing drivers in this year’s field, and most unlikely to raise the Cup. BetUS NASCAR odds guys agree, tagging him the longest shot on the board. Speaking of shot, you have to love Bowyer's sponsor, but not his chances if you wager on NASCAR.
Key to victory for Bower is start strong. His first career victory came last season in the first race of the Chase. And, a lot of luck.
8—Tony Stewart—5000 (+1400)
Stewart is one of five drivers in the Chase for the Cup that didn't earn a victory in 2008. But he got in with 9 top-fives and 13 top-ten appearances. Stewart's 16.5 average starting spot is due-in-part to zero poles. Despite having endured three DNFs, he built a solid 14.5 average of finish.
Stewart enters the Chase riding a Cup-career long 41-race winless streak, dating back to 2007. He was winless for the first time in 10 seasons of Sprint Cup competition. Teammate Busch’s dominance proves Joe Gibbs Racing is putting him winning cars, so may be being preoccupied with work on his new team for next season has kept him out of Victory Lane?
Key to victory for Stewart is to find one of his trademark winning streaks. But if his focus is indeed on the 2009 season, don't expect him to collect third title. In fact, he makes great fading material in any of the driver versus driver matchups located in the BetUS NASCAR odds, as it appears since the announcement of his new team, Stewart has just been showing up to finish the season and not win, obviously.
9—Greg Biffle—5000 (+1800)
Biffle is another non-win chaser, who made the field by posting 8 top-fives and 11 top-ten finishes. Biffle has an impressive 13.8 average starting position thanks to starting on the pole twice, meanwhile, he also owns a strong 14.3 average of finish, despite two DNFs.
Biffle has been one of the most consistent non-winners this season, qualifying him for the Chase for the second time. He probably would have won the championship in 2005 if not for a mistake on pit road that cost him to finish as runner-up 35 points behind Stewart.
Key to victory for Biffle is like most other drivers in the Chase: Consistency. He also needs flawless pit stops and a few fortunate breaks at the expense of other chasers.
10—Matt Kenseth—5000 (+1800)
Kenseth didn't take the checkers in 2008 nor did he start from the pole. But he made the Chase with 6 top-fives and 15 top-ten outings. Kenseth owns a 17.9 average starting spot and a less-than-stellar 16.0 average of finish even though he had no DNFs.
Kenseth enters the postseason winless for the first time in seven seasons. He's one of the other three Roush-Fenway drivers, and it's clear by looking at stats owned by teammate Edwards to see that his equipment isn’t keeping him out of Victory Lane. Best Chase finish in four previous tries was second to Johnson in 2006.
Key to victory for Kenseth is good pit stops and limit mistakes on the track and-or pit road. He's one of the several drivers who can not afford more than one mulligan. This team can not overcome a significant point disadvantage.
11—Kevin Harvick—5000 (+3500)
Harvick is also one of five drivers in the Chase that didn't post a win in 2008. However, his 6 top-fives and 12 top-ten runs were enough to make him a chaser. Harvick's 17.6 average starting position was build off zero poles, though, his decent 13.6 average of finish was put together with no DNFs.
Harvick hasn’t won in 61 races, but finished strong with top 10 runs in six consecutive events heading into the Chase. He’s also one of the few drivers without a DNF in 2008, and that consistency could make him an online NASCAR betting dark horse.
Key to victory for Harvick is start strong and keep his non-DNF streak in tact over the next ten races. A victory, or two, and no DNFs during the Chase makes Harvrick an instant threat with great betting value.
12—Jeff Gordon—5000 (+1800)
Unbelievably to most NASCAR wagering fans, Gordon completed the regular season with no victories, and sputtered into the 12-man Chase field by pocketing the final spot with 9 top-fives and 12 top-ten finishes. He started from the pole twice to help earn a sparkling 10.2 average starting spot, but four DNFs made for a still decent 15.1 average of finish.
Gordon has qualified for the Chase for the Cup for the fourth time in five years. He was second to teammate Johnson last season after dominating the regular season standings, and hasn’t won a race since he won two straight in the first half of the Chase last season. But you can't black flag a four time Sprint Cup champion.
Key to victory for Gordon is to put the regular season behind him and get back to his championship expectations. Staying poised and being in the thick of things after the first three or four races of the Chase would do miracles for him and entire teams confidence. And, a few reminders he's still one of the best stockcar drivers in the world wouldn't hurt.
Free NASCAR Picks: Jeff Gordon (+1800)
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