posted September 1, 2006 at 13:34 EST in NASCAR Betting Trends

Oh Kasey

Of all the NASCAR drivers who will line up on the grid for this Sunday’s Sony HD 500, there are only two men who could seriously use a win: Mark Martin and Kasey Kahne.

The Chase for the Cup is just about set. Only two races remain to determine which 10 drivers will qualify for a chance to win the Nextel Cup, and nine of those spots are all but sewn up. Martin currently occupies the last berth; sitting 90 points behind in 11th place in the drivers’ standings is Kahne. The pressure is on both men to come up with a big race Sunday at California Speedway in Fontana, about 50 miles inland from Los Angeles.

Kahne’s crew needs this victory more than anyone – and at +600, he’s one of the favorites to take the checkered flag. It appears his motivation has already been factored into the price. Kahne does have four victories on the season, which is four more than Martin, but the young up-and-comer for Evernham Motorsports has been difficult for handicappers to pin down. He only has one Top-10 finish in his last five races.

Not that bettors will be quick to lay their cash on Martin at +1800. The Roush Racing veteran has also been inconsistent of late, alternating Top-5 results with disappointing finishes like last week’s 28th at the Sharpie 500. Martin was assessed a one-lap penalty in that race for pitting slightly outside his designated area – one of several pit-related mishaps to threaten Martin’s Chase position.

Of the two drivers, Martin is the only one with a win at Fontana under his belt, but that was back in 1998. Kahne has placed in the Top 6 in each of his last two trips to California Speedway, including a fourth at February’s Auto Club 500. His Cup future is bright; Martin, on the other hand, is expected to focus on the Craftsman Truck series next year, perhaps running a part-time Cup schedule at most. Sunday’s race could foreshadow a changing of the guard.

It may take a monumental effort, though, to overcome Matt Kenseth. He’s the clear favorite at +450 after winning each of his last two Cup races to climb within seven points of Jimmie Johnson (+850) for top spot in the drivers’ standings. The battle for first isn’t nearly as intense as the battle for 10th, but Johnson has enjoyed some excellent results at Fontana (one victory and three seconds in seven appearances), so he may be the better value Sunday.