posted August 25, 2006 at 14:08 EST in NASCAR Betting Trends

Bristol Motor Speedway is easily one of the most popular tracks on the NASCAR Nextel Cup circuit. And no wonder. Not only is it in the heartland of Tennessee, BMS is also barely one step above a demolition derby. The track is just a half-mile long, with banks as high as 36 degrees. The starting grid takes up half the track. It’s a given that the cars are going to be getting up close and personal during Saturday’s Sharpie 500.

What’s great for fans can be a nightmare for handicappers. This event hasn’t had a repeat winner since Rusty Wallace took the checkered flag for the third time in 2000. And despite the lack of space on the track, a poor qualifying result isn’t a dealbreaker at BMS. Three of the last five winners at Bristol started outside the Top 10 on the grid. But it’s the paint-swapping that makes the race a virtual crapshoot.

“Sixty percent of it, you’re in control, and 40 percent you’re not,” 2002 winner Jeff Gordon told the Associated Press. “Even if you have a good race car, it doesn’t guarantee you’ll stay out of trouble. You need a car that’s capable of running the speeds needed to stay up front, but things happen everywhere (at Bristol), whether you’re the leader in lapped traffic or racing for position in the middle or back of the pack. There’s no place that’s necessarily safe there.”

Although things can get a little hairy under the lights at Bristol, the less popular spring race there, the Food City 500, provides several clues to what may transpire Saturday night. Kurt Busch won four of the last five spring events (for two different manufacturers: Ford and Dodge) and is the favorite for the Sharpie 500 at +500. And Gordon isn’t too far back at +750 after winning the spring race at Bristol four times in a row starting in 1995.

The fact that Busch was able to drive his Dodge to first place at the Food City 500 was something of a shock, even with his previous success there. All his other wins came in a Ford with the powerful Roush Racing team. Things haven’t gone quite as well for the 2004 Cup champion since joining Penske Racing. However, Busch was the first man to pilot a Dodge to victory at BMS since Richard Petty in 1975. He’ll be motivated to perform well this week after a disappointing 40th place finish at Michigan last Sunday.

Matt Kenseth (+600) is the next man on the odds list, and he looks very good after taking first place at Michigan to close within 58 points of Jimmie Johnson for top spot in the drivers standings. He now has three victories and a whopping 12 Top-5 finishes in 2006, more than anyone else on the Cup circuit. Kenseth is also impressively consistent at BMS, with eight Top-10 finishes in his previous nine races there – last year’s Sharpie 500 being on the list.

Watch out as well for Kevin Harvick at +800. He also has eight Top-10 results in his last nine trips to Bristol, including a win at the 2005 Food City 500. That makes him a relative bargain compared to Kenseth. Harvick also had five Top-5s in a row this season before placing 11th at Michigan.