posted July 13, 2006 at 09:40 EST in NASCAR Betting Trends

Kurt and media clash

Come in from the cold, Kurt Busch.

The baddest of NASCAR’s resident bad boys on the Nextel Cup circuit has endured his share of ridicule in the media – much of it deserved. But Busch is getting some positive attention for a change as we get closer to Sunday’sLenox Industrial Tools 300(known up until very recently as the “New England 300”) at New Hampshire International Speedway in Loudon.

NASCAR analysts have been crunching the numbers for Sunday’s race, and many conclude that Busch has the best chance to take the checkered flag based on his previous performances at Loudon. Those performances include a sweep of both Loudon events in 2004; in total, Busch has four Top-5 results in 10 career Cup appearances in the Granite State.

There is one glaring problem with that analysis: All those appearances saw Busch driving a Ford for Roush Racing. Now Busch is behind the wheel of the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge for Penske Racing. But that isn’t necessarily bad news for Busch supporters. Last year, Rusty Wallace drove the same car to two Top-10 finishes at the two Loudon events. That, plus the fact that Busch himself has placed in the Top 10 in each of his last five races, makes the volatile Las Vegas native a good value at +850 to win Sunday.

The jury is out, however, on Busch’s Penske teammate. Ryan Newman also has a solid history at Loudon. He also has two victories there (in the 2001 and 2005 autumn races) and a consistent seven Top-10’s in eight appearances. However, Newman is anything but on a roll these days. He’s well out of Chase contention in 18th place, he has yet to win a race this season, and he has just one Top-10 result in his last seven races. There are better candidates at +1200 for this Sunday’s festivities – including Kevin Harvick, who tore up a similar track at Phoenix by winning both the Busch and Cup series events there in April.

One of the best values on the odds list this week may be someone who has exactly zero previous Cup appearances at Loudon. That would be newcomer Denny Hamlin at +1700. Hamlin is no stranger to New Hampshire, having placed third at last year’s Busch Series event and 11th two years ago on the Craftsman Truck circuit. Making the full-time leap to the Nextel Cup hasn’t shaken the Rookie of the Year candidate, either. Hamlin won the Budweiser Shootout and the Pocono 500, and he’s a viable Chase contender at 12th place in the drivers standings.

Of course, as they say in the stock market, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Loudon isn’t a “cookie-cutter” track, but it’s still rather generic and, quite frankly, boring. Officials tried to remedy that in 2002 by merging the apron with the track – now there is plenty of room for passing, opening the field for just about anyone with a live car to grab first place. As a result, there are 14 drivers bunched together at the top of the odds list, starting with favorite Tony Stewart at +550 and ending with Jeff Burton at +1300. Nestled in between are the likes of Jimmie Johnson at +700, Jeff Gordon at +900 and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. at +1000.