posted April 28, 2006 at 09:39 EST in NASCAR Betting Trends

Dale Jr. a threat

The late Dale Earnhardt picked up eight victories at Talladega Superspeedway over the course of his legendary driving career, with the last coming in the Winston 500 in 2000. And Earnhardt’s mastery of the Alabama track was also passed down to his son, as Junior has won at Talladega five times since 2001, including the 2004 EA Sports 500.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. will go for his sixth Talladega Superspeedway win this weekend when he takes to the track in Sunday’s Aaron’s 499. The senior Earnhardt would have celebrated his 55th birthday on Saturday; as a tribute Earnhardt Jr.’s red Chevy will be painted black with both silver and red stripes in the likeness of his father’s old No. 3 car.

Whether that will give Earnhardt Jr. a psychological edge in the race remains to be seen, but oddsmakers nonetheless have pegged Dale Jr. as the +300 favorite to win the Aaron’s 499 on Sunday afternoon. Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon each sit just back of Earnhardt Jr. at +400 odds, while Jimmie Johnson is fourth on the list at +500 odds.

Earnhardt Jr. could use a good result, and ideally a victory, to boost his fortunes in the driver standings. He sits in sixth place after eight events, with no wins and only two Top 5 results so far on the season. Matt Kenseth, Johnson, Kasey Kahne, Mark Martin, and Stewart are all ahead of Dale Jr. in the standings, while Gordon sits tied at 1045 points.

Overall, in 12 career races at Talladega Superspeedway, Earnhardt Jr. has an average finish of 10.7. However, in a stretch of seven races from 2001 to 2004 he finished no lower than second place in any Talladega event, picking up his five wins in that time frame. Last season, Dale Jr. struggled on the Alabama track, finishing 15th and 40th.

Dale Jarrett has two career wins at Talladega, but he leads all current drivers with an average finish of 9.9 since 1998. Other drivers with high average finishes on that track during that time include Stewart (11.9, no wins), Kurt Busch (12.0, no wins), Gordon (13.3, three wins), Kevin Harvick (13.5, no wins), and Jamie McMurray (16.0, no wins).

Points leader Kenseth has only managed to pick up four Top 10 finishes in 12 career races at Talladega, with his best finish being a third-place result in 2005. Johnson has had an even worse time on the Alabama track, finishing 20th or worse in five of his eight career races there. Johnson’s best result was a fourth-place effort in the 2004 season.

Other driver odds this weekend include Harvick (+1200), Elliot Sadler (+1300), Jarrett (+1300), Kurt Busch (+1500), Ryan Newman (+1500), Greg Biffle (+1500), Kenseth (+1500), Carl Edwards (+2000), Jeff Burton (+2000), Kyle Busch (+2000), Martin Truex Jr. (+2500), McMurray (+2500), Mark Martin (+2500), and Bobby Labonte (+2500).

The Aaron’s 499 is scheduled to begin at 1:30pm Eastern Time on Sunday afternoon. The next NASCAR event on the calendar is the Crown Royal 400 on Saturday, May 6.

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