posted May 5, 2006 at 11:59 EST in NASCAR Betting Trends

Johnson a favorite

Richmond International Raceway has rarely been kind to Jimmie Johnson in the past, but the Nextel Cup Series points leader will likely need to pick up a strong finish there this weekend in the Crown Royal 400 to maintain his spot atop the driver standings.

In eight career Nextel Cup Series races at Richmond, Johnson has an average finish of 22.1, with a second-place result in 2004 the only time he’s managed to crack the Top 10. In the two events at Richmond last season, Johnson ended up in 25th and 40th place, and he turned in a 36th-place performance in the second of his two 2004 starts.

However, that doesn’t mean that the oddsmakers are writing Johnson off for this Saturday’s race; he’s still sitting among the leaders at +700 odds to visit victory lane. Other top contenders are Tony Stewart (+600), Kurt Busch (+700), Greg Biffle (+800), Matt Kenseth (+800), Kasey Kahne (+800), Jeff Gordon (+900), and Kyle Busch (+900).

Kahne and Kurt Busch won the two events at Richmond in 2005, while Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeremy Mayfield took the checkered flag in races at that track back in 2004. Of those four drivers, Earnhardt Jr. has had the most success at Richmond, finishing in an average position of 10.1 with two victories in 13 races (the other win coming in 2000).

In four races at Richmond, Kahne has an average finish of 15.3. Kurt Busch sits farther back at 18.4, with Mayfield just behind him at 18.8. Kyle Busch has raced at Richmond only twice, but he ended up in fourth place both times. Other drivers with high average finishes on that track include Ryan Newman (11.0), Mark Martin (11.3), Stewart (12.1), Jeff Burton (13.7), Bobby Labonte (14.1), Kenseth (14.2), and Kevin Harvick (15.1).

Stewart has more career wins at the Virginia track than any other active driver; he won the Pontiac Excitement 400 in both 2002 and 2001, and the Exide NASCAR Select Batteries 400 in 1999. Gordon, Dale Jarrett, and Earnhardt Jr. have each won twice at Richmond in their respective driving careers, and are the only other multiple winners.

Another victory by any of those four past winners would move them closer to Johnson in the driver standings. Stewart is currently sitting in third place, 78 points back of the leader. Gordon is in sixth, 221 points back, while Earnhardt Jr. (274 points back) and Jarrett (328 points back) have even more ground to make up on the standings leader.

Johnson is pegged by the oddsmakers as the current favorite to win the 2006 Nextel Cup Championship, at +300 odds. Right behind him on that list are Kenseth (+350) and Stewart (+400). Other current title odds include Gordon (+500), Kahne (+600), Earnhardt Jr. (+600), Martin (+800), Kyle Busch (+900), and Carl Edwards (+1000).

The Crown Royal 400 is scheduled to begin at 7:00pm Eastern Time on Saturday. The next NASCAR event on the calendar is the Dodge Charger 500 on Saturday, May 13.

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