NASCAR Betting Preview - Checker O'Reilly 500

NASCAR Preview: With Two Races to Go, Jimmie’s 4th Sprint Cup Almost a Certainty

Race-day: 11/15/2009

Race-time: 2:30 pm EST

With two races to go in The Chase, Jimmie Johnson has a 73 point over fellow Hendrick Motor Sports driver Mark Martin, and a 112 point lead over fellow Hendrick driver Jeff Gordon.

The chances of Jimmie losing the Sprint Cup aren’t very good, but stranger things have happened which is why the Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, this Sunday’s race at Phoenix International Raceway, is such a big deal. JJ finished 38th last week in Texas and another finish like that, along with let’s say a Mark Martin victory, would make next week’s final race in The Chase very, very interesting.

Could Johnson possibly blow the Sprint Cup lead he garnered by winning the three of the four Chase races? Sure he could if he keeps finishing close to 40th place and his teammate, Martin, wins a couple more.

Martin, by the way, returns to Phoenix where he won in April and where he averages a 9th place finish. The old man of Hendrick hasn’t been driving like an old timer all season and definitely has enough left in the tank to make a serious run at JJ should Jimmie and his crew blow another race.

The NASCAR odds on Johnson in the race are +400. The odds on Mark Martin in the sportsbook are +500. I’d go with Martin in this situation. He’s coming off of a 4th place finish at Texas and has won at PIR before.

This race is Martin’s to lose, not Jimmie’s to win, which means that a seriously interesting matchup next week at Homestead cold be brewing after Sunday.

Which Busch Will Show Up in Phoenix?

Which Busch will show up in Phoenix? Will Kurt hold off Kyle, like he did last weekend at Texas, or will Kyle finally secure another victory in 2009?

Both Busch’s are going off at decent odds in the sportsbook, +1200 for both, and it will be a question of which Busch gamblers prefer more in this spot. Stat wise, neither Busch brother has been impressive in Phoenix.

Kurt has one victory. Kyle has one victory. Kurt averages a 13th place finish. Kyle averages a 15th place finish.

Betting either one might be silly, but rarely this season have bettors been able to get double digit odds on Kyle Busch. That shouldn’t be the only reason that bettors back him, but it does show that there is some wagering value with Kyle.

Where Has Tony Stewart Gone?

That has to be the question with 2 races left in the Sprint Cup Chase. Smoke has been nowhere to be found since winning on October 4th at Kansas in the 3rd Chase race.

Tony finished 5th a week later in the Pepsi 500 and 9th in the Tums Fast Relief 500 but his 35th place finish at Talladega killed him even though he bounced back last week with a 6th place finish.

Stewart led in the Sprint Cup Standings going into The Chase and it looked like the 1st time driver/owner would strike gold. That hasn’t been the case as Tony is now in 5th place in the standings behind JJ, Martin, Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch. Tony is going off at +800 in the sportsbook to win at PIR. He probably won’t have enough to get it done, but don’t worry about Tony.

Next year promises to be another one full of hope for Smoke, however, as there is no doubt that wearing both hats, driver and owner, suits him.

There are two races left in the 2009 NASCAR Season! Sit back, grab a cold one, and enjoy some racing!