posted April 2, 2009 at 19:10 EST in MLB Props
MLB Props - Stolen Bases and Home Runs
by Charles Jay

I think the stolen base is the most underused device in the major leagues. Imagine that the catcher who can throw out more than 35% of runners trying to steal is a rare commodity, and managers aren't making more use of a component of offense that has a great chance of success? That simply doesn't make sense for me. The player who can hit AND steal is a tremendous weapon, and we'll take a look at how some of these guys compare to each other.
Carl Crawford vs. Jose Reyes - Regular Season Steals
Reyes -6.5 -300
Crawford +6.5 +200
-- Crawford's stolen bases were down by half last year, dipping from 50 to 25. Part of that was obviously due to injuries; he's still just 27 years old and has dedicated this season to rebound in all categories, including his batting average, which was down to .273 in 2008. Still, Reyes' totals of 64, 78 and 56 in the last three seasons are far better than any three-year period Crawford's ever had. JAY'S PLAY: REYES -6.5 (-300)
Carlos Beltran vs. Matt Holliday - Regular Season Steals
Beltran -3.5 -110
Holliday +3.5 -120
-- Beltran is a power hitter primarily, but he is also going to be anywhere from 22-25 steals, giving him an added dimension. Holliday busted out for 28 steals with Colorado last year, though his power numbers were way down. I'm not sure this means he's transformed himself as a player. but what makes this an interesting proposition is that we know he can do those kind of numbers, and the way Oakland plays, and in the ballpark it plays it, they may be looking for him to continue supplying that speed component. JAY'S PLAY: HOLLIDAY +3.5 (-120)
Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Jimmy Rollins - Regular Season Steals
Ellsbury -3.5 -120
Rollins +3.5 -110
-- Ellsbury had 50 steals last year, based on a .280 average and .336 on-base percentage. I am expecting those figures to both be up this season, which means Ellsbury should find himself in the 50's once again. Rollins had a career high of 47 last year, and if he winds up regaining some of his power numbers (homers were down to 11 after 30 the year before), I wouldn't be looking for an increase on steals. JAY'S PLAY: ELLSBURY -3.5 (-120)
Curtis Granderson vs. Russell Martin - Regular Season Steals
Granderson -2.5 Even
Martin +2.5 -130
-- What makes this one interesting is that Martin is a catcher, and there have not been too many catchers in modern baseball history who are a threat to steal. The last two years he's stolen 39 bases, but if there is anything that becomes a casualty as a result of the wear and tear a backstop faces, it's going to be the stolen bases. I just don't know if the 26-year-old Martin is at that point yet, When you look at Granderson's career, he had that one season of 26 stolen bases, but only eight the year before and 12 the year after. I'm not sure that is a major area of interest for him. JAY'S PLAY: MARTIN +2.5 (-130)
Just for the hell of it, I thought I'd use a couple of head-to-head home run props too:
Adam Dunn vs. Jermaine Dye - Regular Season HR's
Dunn -6.5 Even
Dye +6.5 -130
-- Since Jermaine Dye got to Chicago, he has hit 31, 44, 28 and 34 homers, so you can be relatively certain he'll be around the 30-homer mark, and he has a pretty good ballpark to hit in (U.S. Cellular Field). Dunn has been undaunted by low batting averages; he is going to hit his homers, and he's clubbed 40 or more in each of the last five seasons. In the last four, he's hit exactly 40. He's moved on to Washington, which has gotten an early reputation as a bad hitter's park because the Nationals couldn't produce. I'm not sure that's the case. Look for Dunn to flourish, and win the home run title. JAY'S PLAY: DUNN -6.5 (Even)
Rick Ankiel vs. Jay Bruce - Regular Season HR's
Ankiel -1 -115
Bruce +1 -115
-- He's only been a position player for a few seasons, so I would consider Ankiel to have some upside. He hit 25 homers last year, and could be good for anywhere from 30-35. Bruce came to Cincinnati with a tremendous reputation as a power hitter, and he hit 21 in 413 at-bats for the Reds. Another guy with upside, and I am looking for more progress, but maybe Ankiel is a little more advanced at this point. JAY'S PLAY: ANKIEL -1 (-115)



