posted March 27, 2009 at 11:45 EST in MLB Props
MLB Homerun King - Stay away from A-Roid
Major League Baseball’s Opening Day is quickly approaching. The first regular season game is actually Atlanta vs. Philadelphia on April 5th. The rest of MLB begins their season on April 6th.
In any case, fans need to get their future book wagers down on everything MLB. That includes finding the best bet on who might lead the majors in home runs this year.
Last year’s home run king, Ryan Howard, is the future book favorite to take down the crown again. But will Howard do it?
Let’s analyze the top betting choices to lead Major League Baseball in home runs in 2009.
MLB Betting: Regular Season Home Runs
1. Albert Pujols +1000 - - Big things are expected out of the St. Louis Cardinals’ slugger and I believe he comes through big time in 2009. Pujols won’t have the same amount stress on him that Howard will and there’s no doubting that if Albert is healthy, he could put up huge numbers in 2009. He’s not a lock, but he’ll have the supporting cast to protect him and he should be ready to roll after another great 2008. Get this for stats: Pujols is the only player in major league baseball history to manage 30 home runs a .300 batting average over 100 RBIs and at least 99 runs scored in each of his first 8 seasons in the Big Show. Amazing.
2. Ryan Howard +300 - - The Phillies’ home run king just signed a huge contract that will keep him in Philadelphia for a very long time. That could work against him if he relaxes too much. Another issue is that the N.L. has gotten better in terms of its pitching. How will Howard respond now that all of the eyes in the sports world will be upon every time he takes to the batters’ box? He should be okay, but the odds are too low to suggest a wager. If he’s close to the 48 he put up last year, then he’s probably the home run king again.
3. Evan Longoria +1200 - - He’s the reason that the Rays ended up in the World Series in 2008 and because this will only be his second season in the Big Show, there’s a huge upside with Longoria. He’s going to have to really step up his home run production from 27 to challenge the incredible Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols but he can do it.
4. Miguel Cabrera +1000 - - Cabrera put up 37 last year for the Tigers and Detroit sucked in 2008. With Detroit improving, Cabrera becomes a solid choice to take down Howard as the top guy with the long ball. He could put up at least 40 to 44 because the Tigers should be much better at protecting him when he steps to the plate.
5. Ryan Braun/Prince Fielder +1200 - - Both Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder deserve some mentioning as potential home run kings in 2009 because the Brewers aren’t going to have any issues scoring runs and they’ll protect each other. Of course, if gamblers bet on one, they might want to bet on the other as it’s difficult to tell which Milwaukee player is going to have the better season but if Fielder had stayed healthy, he would have put up 42 home runs in 2008 instead of just the 34. So, Fielder might be the slightly better choice between the two.
6. Adam Dunn +1500 - - Dunn hit 40 home runs in 2008 while playing for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Now, he gets to swing the bat for the Washington Nationals. With Ryan Zimmerman able to support him in the line up, Dunn could easily march into the final month of the regular season only a couple of homers off of Howard and/or Pujols. Dunn is a solid guy and no matter what bettors think of his batting average (it stinks!), he hits the long ball better than almost anybody.
Best Long Shots
Manny Ramirez +4000 - - The Dodgers’ slugger always produces and L.A. has embraced his quirkiness. He’s a good bet to approach 40 again.
David Ortiz +4000 - - Big Papi hit only 23 home runs in 2008 but the Red Sox know that they will need him to produce to have any shot against the Yankees. He should get close to 40 home runs in 2009.
Derek Lee +10000 - - Huge odds on the Twins’ outfielder who was hurt last year and played in only 15 games. Sure, it’s a gamble, but the odds are 100 to 1 that this usually solid slugger returns to form.
Stay Away From
Alex Rodriguez +800 - - Steroids, the hip, Madonna, Spitzer’s madam…nothing has really gone right for A-Rod this off season. The odds are too low to even consider a wager on a player that just doesn’t have his head straight going into 2009 and is coming off of an injury.
