posted February 16, 2009 at 14:20 EST in MLB Props
MLB Futures Betting - This Years Tampa Bay
by Charles Jay
WHERE WILL THE NEXT "TAMPA BAY STORY" COME FROM?
Which major league team, if any, can become a story similar to last year's Tampa Bay Rays, who won the American League championship?
In order to qualify, you'd probably have to be able to say this about my selection:
- "Mean, you're crazy"
- "Not in a million years"
- "No chance whatsoever"
- "That's very unlikely to happen"
Well, of course it's unlikely. That's why they're longshots.
Last year's Rays, however, showed that anything is possible.
When I talk about the "next Tampa Bay," remember what kind of team Tampa Bay is/was. The Rays came out of nowhere, after a long period of futility, and did it not necessarily with an offensive assault, but with a strong starting pitching staff, which gave the team a solid performance on the mound more often that not. It also didn't hurt that there was a big prospect (in Tampa Bay's case, Evan Longoria) that developed into a main cog in the everyday lineup.
Although there were people who forecast progress in the Tampa Bay organization, few - make that VERY few - would have given them a chance to get a World Series, not with teams like the Red Sox and Yankees in their own division to get in their way.
So what would the requirements be for any candidate?
I think what any team needs, first and foremost, is a pitching staff, preferably composed of a veteran or two and a few youngsters who are able to come together at the right time. The Rays had their ace in Scott Kazmir, who had previously been named to All-Star teams, plus James Shields, who was already very efficient and looked like he might break out even further. Also, you had Andy Sonnanstine and Matt Garza becoming bona fide major league pitchers, along with Edwin Jackson, who was good enough to fill that fifth spot in the rotation. Throw in the work of Troy Percival in the bullpen (at least for most of the year) and the contributions of rookie David Price toward the end, and you had a winning formula for a team that, truth be told, did not blow anybody away with its hitting.
The pitching in the majors is so thin that I think any team able to string together four starters of some quality has to have a leg up on most of the others.
Here are a couple of teams you will scoff at, but with some luck, and some pieces falling into place, could be ready to deal out a surprise:
CINCINNATI REDS (+5000 in BetUS odds) -- The story of the Reds begins with the starters, of course. They had traded Josh Hamilton to pick up Edinson Volquez, who was a rookie sensation for them, appearing in last year's All-Star Game and finishing with a 17-6 record and 3.21 ERA. Johnny Cueto, who's only 23, is said to have monster stuff and struck out 158 batters in 174 innings. He's expected to improve greatly on his 9-14 record in the future. Maybe the future is now. Aaron Harang has been around for a little while, and through he had just a 6-17 record last year, he won 16 games each of the two previous seasons, with an ERA under 4.00 each year from 2005-07. Micah Owings, probably better known for having a .319 career batting average, showed a lot of promise in Arizona two years ago and there isn't any reason he shouldn't be able to once again be able to contribute. Then there's Bronson Arroyo, who has won 14 games or more in three of the last four seasons, with a career high of 15 in '08. The Reds also have high hopes for Homer Bailey, who hasn't shown a lot yet. They need a lefty arm, and that could wind up being Matt Maloney.
Cincinnati traded Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn last season, but there are still players here with some pop. Brandon Philips hit 21 homers from the second base spot before breaking his finger in September. Joey Votto hit 24 homers and is certainly a star of the future. Edwin Encarnacion may be ready for a breakout season at third base. Jay Bruce, the much-heralded prospect, hit 21 homers in just 108 games as a rookie. Shortstop Jeff Keppinger hit .332 a couple of years ago and hardly ever strikes out. He may have the starting job again if Alex Gonzalez doesn't recover form a fractured patella. Outfielder Chris Dickerson hit .304 in limited duty. Willy Taveras stole 68 bases for Colorado last year. There is a lot of upside here, and when you get past the Cubs I'm not sure any team really stands out too strongly in the NL Central.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (+15000 in BetUS odds) -- You know, Kansas City actually won one more game last year (75) than Cincinnati did. In fact, they won 18 of their last 26 games. This team is filled with young, talented players. Mike Aviles (26) hit .325 last season. Alex Gordon (27) has disappointed somewhat, but he has great power potential at third base. Mark Teahen and Billy Butler have potential. Mike Jacobs, acquired from Florida, can hit plenty of home runs. Coco Crisp was snatched from Boston to steady the center field spot. There's a sprinkling of veterans like Jose Guillen and David DeJesus, as well as a catching combo of Miguel Olivo and John Buck that isn't too bad. If they can find a place for him to play, rookie Kila Ka'aihue, who blasted 37 round-trippers in the minors, could provide the power boost to Kansas City that Longoria gave to the Rays last season.
The pitching is where the Royals can put it together; that is, if the arms can jell simultaneously. I though that Zach Grienke looked like a dominant pitcher in the early stages, and a genuine candidate to start for the AL in the All-Star Game. He slumped a little, but still had a very good year, at 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA. Gil Meche was a rare big-money free agent signing for Kansas City, but has given them solid work in the rotation (14-11, 3.98 ERA). Kyle Davies, who went 9-7 last year, could wind up being useful, especially after posting a 4-1 record with a 2.27 ERA in September. The guys you have to watch for are Brian Bannister, who started very hot in '08 but then took a nosedive, and Luke Hochevar, who was the first overall pick in the 2006 draft but has yet to show something at the major league level, not to mention Horacio Ramirez, who would be the left-handed arm in the rotation. The Royals traded Ramon Ramirez, which is a shame, but they still have Joakim Soria (1.60 ERA, 42 saves), who is one of the best closers in all of baseball. Kyle Farnsworth, who throws smoke, will be of some help in the bullpen.
This AL Central is wide-open, and could end up in any order. Cleveland came on late, and Detroit, we know, has the horses but flopped. The White Sox and Twins were last year's best, but there is no clear-cut choice who couldn't have a meltdown. That could put Kansas City in the thick of things. I also have some faith in manager Trey Hillman, who has brought some of the principles that made him a big success managing the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan.
(Charles Jay is a big home run hitter - without steroids - when he contributes to the BetUS Locker Room)
