posted July 14, 2009 at 17:59 EST in MLB Props
MLB All-Star Game Betting - Odds on the MVP
by Charles Jay
MLB Baseball All-Star Props BettingWHO'LL BE THE ALL-STAR MVP?
Let's take a look at the BetUS Sportsbook odds to win the MVP in Tuesday night's All-Star Game.
(For complete odds and updates, go to http://www.betus.com/sportsbook/mlb-2009_all_star_game_mvp-baseball_lines.aspx)
To Win All Star Game MVP Award
Aaron Hill +1200
Adrian Gonzalez +1800
Albert Pujols +450
Brad Hawpe +2000
Brandon Inge +2000
Brian McCann +2000
Carl Crawford +1500
Carlos Pena +1500
Chase Utley +1000
David Wright +1000
Derek Jeter +750
Evan Longoria +750
Hanley Ramirez +1000
Ichiro Suzuki +700
Jason Bay +1000
Joe Mauer +800
Josh Hamilton +800
Justin Morneau +1200
Justin Upton +2000
Kevin Youkilis +1000
Mark Teixeira +800
Michael Young +1000
Nelson Cruz +1000
Prince Fielder +1000
Raul Ibanez +1000
Ryan Braun +1000
Ryan Howard +1200
Shane Victorino +1200
Victor Martinez +1800
Yadier Molina +1200
Field +700
We want to do this partly by way of a process of elimination, so let's start eliminating people. I am going to eliminate all first baseman in this game, with the exception of hometown guy Pujols. Why? Because each team has four first sackers, and I'm not sure how many of them will be in the game long enough to make enough of an impact. I'd eliminate Ben Zobrist, except that he is not on this list. The reason I would do that with Zobrist is that he can play a bunch of positions. Last year, Terry Francona made sure he kept Carlos Guillen out of the game until he absolutely had to put him in, because he could insert him defensively just about anywhere. Good thing I guess, because the game went fifteen innings. I'm sure Joe Maddon will not stiff his player entirely, but Zobrist may be the last guy in.
There are no pitchers on this list, either, which is just as well, since only five pitchers have won the All-Game MVP since the awards was instituted back in 1962. I don't think it's particularly useful to eliminate other positions, with the possible exception of third-string catchers.
Does it matter if a player started the game? Last year it didn't, as J.D. Drew took home honors, but that was a 15-inning game. Out of 47 games where there was an All-Star MVP (two of them were played in 1962), on ten occasions was the MVP not a starting player in the game. That would seem to greatly reduce the chances of anyone who was not selected as a starter in the game, though I wouldn't completely count those guys out.
Three players listed in this field - Michael Young, Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter - have won the All-Star Game MVP before, and one other, Miguel Tejada, would be a part of the "Field" bet.
Pujols is obviously a popular choice. I'm going to look for a guy to have a breakout of sorts in this year's game. I think that guy could be Joe Mauer (+800 at BetUS), who is well-respected by the writers, and a firmly established as an all around stud. This year he's once again leading major league in batting average and he arrives as one of the game's “good guys”.
Honorable mention? How about a guy who might find himself playing the entire game? It's happened before. If I am right about Maddon not using Ben Zobrist until he has to, that would leave Toronto's AARON HILL (+1200 at BetUS) with a lot of playing time, because Dustin Pedroia, who was supposed to start this game, is skipping it to be with his wife, who is expecting and having complications. Then again, maybe Maddon chose not to add Ian Kinsler to the roster because he has plans to put Zobrist on second base at some point. Either way though, I'm betting Hill won't get cheated out of at bats. And with 20 home runs already, he's got enough pop to make a difference in one of those appearances.
