posted March 28, 2009 at 15:40 EST in MLB Props
Major League Pitching Props
MAJOR LEAGUE PITCHING PROPS - PART 2
One of the great things about the BetUS Sportsbook is that they have propositions on the total wins of a number of prominent major league pitchers, which you can take advantage of in the "Futures" section. Last time out we took a look at some of the guys who are considered "aces" in their respective rotations. We'll continue to do that with starters who are either #1 or #2 in the pitching rotation.
Scott Kazmir total regular season wins
Over 13½ Wins +125
Under 13½ Wins -155
Am I the only guy who likes Scott Kazmir? No, I'm just kidding. I understand the concern on the part of the oddsmaker, and on the part of fantasy owners. Kazmir has been on the disabled list three times in the last three seasons, and he's only had 35 wins in that time. Little guys who throw hard have been known to break down over time (as some are predicting for Tim Lincecum) and Kazmir has had minor breakdowns early in his career. He is age 25, though, and is a potentially dominant pitcher when healthy, so I can see a guy with his ability always having the ability to win between 17 and 19 games. For the price, I'm willing to take the chance. OVER 13.5 (+125)
Justin Duchscherer total regular season wins
Over 11½ Wins -115
Under 11½ Wins -115
Duchscherer was one of my favorite pitchers last season. He started 22 games, and in only two of them did he allow more than three earned runs. In the first 17, he allowed more the two runs only once. For the year he had a 2.54 ERA. That's incredibly consistent pitching, but all it got him was ten wins. I'm not sure he can repeat that All-Star level performance, but maybe that gives an indication of what he is capable of in a starter's role (he was previously a reliever). If he can get more offensive support (Oakland acquired Matt Holliday to help in that regard) he may have a shot to eclipse this figure. OVER 11.5 (-115)
Dan Haren total regular season wins
Over 14½ Wins -135
Under 14½ Wins +105
Haren has thrown 200 or more innings for four consecutive seasons. he may have had his best season in 2008, with 206 strikeouts in 204 innings, and 16 victories. The problem with Arizona, of course, is that there are not a lot of runs to work with. He may get there, but just barely. I'm not sure it's worth laying the price. He has shown that he can have a decent season and still be sitting with 14 victories. UNDER 14.5 (+105)
Chad Billingsley total regular season wins
Over 13½ Wins -145
Under 13½ Wins +115
Billingsley had 16 wins and a 3.14 ERA for the Dodgers last year, which, coupled with his 3.31 ERA in 2007, has sent the signal that he is potentially one of the three or four best right-handed starters in the National League. He recently suffered a slight groin pull, which is not believed to be serious. OVER 13.5 (-145)
Cliff Lee total regular season wins
Over 13½ Wins -145
Under 13½ Wins +115
Lee gave up almost four less runs per nine innings in 2008 than he did the year before. Of course, in 2006 he was 14-11 for the Tribe. I figure Cleveland to be a contender in its division this season, and while Lee won’t be able to duplicate his numbers from last year, when he was 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP ratio, he doesn't walk a lot of people and demonstrated what he can do when healthy. We expect he'll continue to be a very solid starter - within reason. OVER 13.5 (-145)
Zach Greinke total regular season wins
Over 13½ Wins +115
Under 13½ Wins -145
Grienke teased me with great numbers early. He gave up two earned runs or less in each of his first six starts, and then tailed off quite a bit. Just when he was written off by some, though, Grienke came on strong from mid-August onward, giving up just nine earned runs in his last 50-2/3 innings. He has All-Star Game starter stuff, and put that on display, with 183 strikeouts in 202 innings. He is the ace of the Kansas City staff, and as I wrote in my story about ""Who could be the next Tampa Bay'?), I am expecting the Royals to be one of the improved teams in the league. That means more wins for Grienke. OVER 13.5 (+115)
James Shields total regular season wins
Over 13½ Wins -135
Under 13½ Wins +105
Shields is the #1 starter for Tampa Bay, which means he'll probably get more starts than anyone on the Rays' staff. Over the last two seasons, he's pitched 215 innings in each, and walked just 76 batters in 430 innings over that time. That's a guy who isn't allowing a lot of cheap runs through walks. Being the #1 starter will also mean he's facing other #1 starters, and for all his good pitching the last couple of years he's got 26 wins. His ERA on the road last season was a not-so-sparkling 4.82. So he's kind of a borderline play, and the price dictates our move here. UNDER 13.5 (+105)
