Handicapping the Home Run Derby - Will it be the Pujols Show?

Here are the participants in the Home Run Derby at the All-Star Game, with the number of homers they have hit this season in parentheses and the BetUS odds to win the contest next to it:

(click for All Home Run Derby props)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

• Brandon Inge, Tigers (21) +1400
• Nelson Cruz, Rangers (22) +700
• Carlos Pena, Rays (24) +600
• Joe Mauer, Twins (15) +800
  
  

NATIONAL LEAGUE

• Albert Pujols, Cardinals (32) +170
• Ryan Howard, Phillies (22) +285
• Prince Fielder, Brewers (22) +500
• Adrian Gonzalez, Padres (24) +550
  
  

Hitting home runs in game situations and hitting them in batting practice are sometimes two distinctly different things, and it is not always the determinant of the best home run hitter in baseball. In 23 contests, only four times has the champion of the Derby also been the major league home run champion:

• 1987 - Andre Dawson
• 1990 - Ryne Sandberg
• 2000 - Sammy Sosa
• 2006 - Ryan Howard
  
  

Nobody would have been arguing that Derby champs like Bobby Abreu (2005), Garret Anderson (2003), Cal Ripken Jr (1991) or Wally Joyner (tied in 1986) were the best home run hitter in the game. Yet Abreu holds the record for the most homers in the contest, with 41.

So I guess that rather than necessarily seeking out the guy who leads the league in homers, we're looking for their best batting practice hitter who happens to be having the best evening.

It would seem like there was more muscle on the National league side of things, and when you look at the body of work, that is unquestionably true, while the AL guys are more or less newcomers; and when we say "newcomers," we're not taking into account that Cruz and Pena were just named to the All-Star team - and the Derby - a day or two ago.

Only three of the contestants this year have been in a previous Home Run Derby. They are:

• PUJOLS (+170 at BetUS) finished second to Garret Anderson in 2003, tied for third but missed the finals in 2007. He is eighth all-time in Home Run Derby long balls with 39.
• HOWARD (+285 at BetUS) won the crown in 2006 in a tight one over David Wright, then came back the next year and was eliminated after only three homers in Round One.
• FIELDER (+500 at BetUS) was disappointing with just three homers in the 2007 contest.
  
  

Not coincidentally, though, these guys are the three highest favorites in the contest. All of the NL stars are rated at lower odds than all for AL representatives.

I doubt it's going to come down that way. I understand that Pujols is a favorite, because for one thing he is leading the majors in homers, has proven himself to be a tough competitor in the Derby, is averaging a homer for every 9.6 at bats, and is playing in his home park in front of a home crowd. Howard likes Busch Stadium, though, hitting a homer in every nine at bats in his career when playing there, and he is the only guy competing here that has won it before.

• GONZALEZ (+550 at BetUS) started like a house afire, but has hit only four homers since May 31, and I am not sure that a guy who is not bringing a home run stroke into this thing is going to fare very well.
• PENA (+600 at BetUS) has not had a whole lot of time to think about it, which might be a good thing for him. He is a 54.5% fly ball hitter, which probably says something about the way he will handle these batting practice pitches. He is also a good pure home run hitter.
  
  

I guess if I am looking for a true longshot in this competition, I may want to look at either Pena or JOE MAUER (+800 at BetUS) of Minnesota; that is, if he really chooses to take this thing seriously. Mauer has not been a big home run hitter in his career, blasting only 44 in five seasons prior to this one. His specialty is line drives, and he has already led the American League in batting twice doing just that. But Mauer, coming off the disabled list, found power right from the beginning this season, hitting eleven homers in his first 23 games, and managed to keep his average above .400 during that time. Yes, he's tapered off with power since, but I look at him like one of those "naturals" who can do just about anything he wants on a baseball field. At 6'5", 225 pounds, he's built for power. If anyone can pull a surprise, why not him?