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posted April 3, 2009 at 13:25 EST in MLB Props

Folding Aces - MLB Pitchers to Stay Away from in April

Bookmark and Share by Mike Rose

Anyone can find a good pitcher to back, but it’s just as important for a sports betting fanatic to find pitchers to fade. Check out BetUS Sportsbook’s list of pitchers you should consider fading away on in the first month of the MLB season…

Roy Halladay (2-4 in April 2008): The ace of the Toronto staff is normally a tremendous hurler to back, but at this point, his price tags are almost all ridiculously high. He was a slow starter last season going just 2-4 (and -$299). Yes, Halladay gets a pass for having to play the Rays, Yanks, and Sox in that opening month of the season last year, but his numbers against all three of those teams are historically solid. He’s gone 9-5 over the L/3 seasons, and the team may be 10-6 in his 16 starts, but there are plenty of big chalk numbers in that bunch. The ace’s second start will likely be at Jacobs Field, where the Tribe has lit Halladay up for a 6.00+ ERA over the L/3 seasons.

CC Sabathia (1-4 in April 2008): Dare we suggest fading the guy who was clearly the most dominant pitcher in baseball down the stretch last season? Sabathia had an ERA over a touchdown in the opening month of last season and went just 1-4. No wonder why the Indians were sellers at the trade deadline. Now, with the added pressure of a truck load of money and the bright lights of new Yankee Stadium, will the superstar be able to produce? Opposing batters are hitting a shade under .300 against CC over the L/3 seasons, and his ERA is a ridiculous 5.43 in 11 starts. He’ll likely end up starting games this month against Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Oakland. Between the rate of which the oddsmakers love to hype the Bronx Bombers and their love for Sabathia, the perfect storm might be there for a perfect fade.

Barry Zito (0-5 in April 2008): Was last year just an aberration for the San Fran starter, or is there really anything left in the tank? Zito’s 0-5 mark last April (0-6 if you include his start on March 31st) may have been a disaster, but his team didn’t exactly do him any favors. The Giants only scored eight runs in his first six starts of the year, and only scored more than two runs once. Though San Fran is an improved team from a year ago, Zito’s 3-10 record and 5.58 ERA in 15 starts over the L/3 years in the month of April is too terrifying to back.

Francisco Liriano (0-3 in April 2008): Now here’s an interesting predicament… Liriano was clearly a dominant pitcher before going through Tommy John’s surgery that cost him any effectiveness in 2008. For his career, in the months of May-August, the left-handed Johan Santana clone has an ERA of less than 2.00. Though that number is astronomical, his 1-3 record and 6.93 ERA in the month of April should be cause for concern. Opposing batters who hit under .200 against him in the next four months of the season batted over .320 against him in the month of April. Until Liriano proves he’s truly healthy, those numbers make him a vintage fade.

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