posted April 6, 2009 at 13:25 EST in MLB Props
Baseball Betting - Home Run and Hit Props
by Charles Jay
PLAYER PROPS:
HOME RUNS AND HITS
This is the "other" version of fantasy baseball, where you actually have to bet on each event happening. At the same time, having a background of following and fielding fantasy teams can really come in handy. Let's jump right into it:
ADAM DUNN - Regular season HR's
Over 33.5 -115
Under 33.5 -115
As one friend of mine said the other day, "I have yet to find the ballpark that can hold Adam Dunn. That's right, and that's why I selected him as my choice to lead the majors in homers, relative to the price. The general consensus is that he will have more support in the lineup this year, with some emerging players and new acquisitions like Josh Willingham. Ryan Zimmerman should have a better season too. Nothing earth-shattering, but enough. He's good for at least 40. JAY'S PLAY: OVER 33.5 (-115).
MARK TEIXEIRA - Regular season HR's
Over 32.5 -115
Under 32.5 -115
Teixiera's acquisition by the Yankees obviously drew a lot of buzz, and for good reason, since they handed him a lot of money. He's got guys hitting around him in the lineup, so eventually it will be very tough to pitch around him. He'll also probably feel some added responsibility early to provide extra power to make up for the absence of Alex Rodriguez. That having been said, his best home run year - the one where he hit 40 - was in Texas, where everyone hits homers. He's had 33, 30 and 33 the last three years. That doesn't give you a big comfort level. JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 32.5 (-115)
JASON BAY - Regular season HR's
Over 25.5 -115
Under 25.5 -115
I don't think Jason Bay thinks he is going to duplicate the power numbers of the guy he replaced, Manny Ramirez, but he knows what his role is with the Red Sox. He's going to hit more than his share of homers in Fenway - in three of the last four seasons he has topped 30 - and I think he still has upside. JAY'S PLAY: OVER 25.5 (-115)
RYAN BRAUN - Regular season HR's
Over 33.5 -115
Under 33.5 -115
Braun is a monster. He is 25 years old, and in his two seasons he has hit 34 and 37 homers, and there is no telling how good he can be. I expect him to be contending for the home run title in the National League, and if he can get his average back to 2007 levels (.324 as a rookie), he can help carry Milwaukee to more wins than expected. JAY'S PLAY: OVER 33.5 (-115)
ALFONSO SORIANO - Regular season HR's
Over 32.5 -115
Under 32.5 -115
Soriano is an interesting proposition, because he hit 46 homers in a lot of at-bats (647) with Washington three seasons ago and 33 the next season with the Cubs. Last season he missed time with injuries, and should have had about 150 more at-bats but still hit 29 dingers. You will have to assume that he is going to stay healthy, which may not be a huge leap of faith, but since he is a leadoff hitter who does not draw many walks, you know he is up there taking his cuts. A guarded recommendation, but a recommendation nonetheless. JAY'S PLAY: OVER 32.5 (-115)
HANLEY RAMIREZ - Regular season HR's
Over 28.5 -115
Under 28.5 -115
Ramirez doesn't play in the best park for home run hitters, but he banged out 33 homers last year, a lot for a leadoff man. He only produced 67 RBI's, so the Marlins are moving him to third in the order, and he has bulked up in the off-season in an effort to provide more power. Hey, if he wants to hit with more power, I'm not arguing with him. Onward and upward for this guy, who is #1 on a lot of fantasy boards. JAY'S PLAY: OVER 28.5 (-115)
ICHIRO SUZUKI - Regular season hits
Over 203.5 -115
Under 203.5 -115
Well, let's put it this way: Ichiro has averaged 226 hits in the major leagues, and has never had less than 206 in a season. At age 34, he had 43 steals, his third highest total, which means that he is not a "shot" player by any means. There are distractions; comments from people like former mariner closer J.J. Putz that Suzuki was a divisive force on the team last year, but I don't think there is anything that is going to prevent this guy from getting to this number. JAY'S PLAY: OVER 203.5 (-115)
GRADY SIZEMORE - Regular season hits
Over 171.5 -115
Under 171.5 -115
Everybody thinks Sizemore is such a great player. I don't know if I agree with all of the hype, but I think that at age 26 he could be on the way to scaling new heights. He struck out less last season, and drew less walks, which means he's getting the bat on the ball more. He will probably be the leadoff hitter, so he'll get a lot of chances, and this should be a better Cleveland offense, as I figure they can win the division. JAY'S PLAY: OVER 171.5 (-115)
JOSH HAMILTON - Regular season hits
Over 167.5 -115
Under 167.5 -115
I have no doubt that Hamilton will be able to put up big numbers in homers and RBI's again, but I think opposing pitchers are going to be a little more hesitant to pitch to him this year, and that may result in more walks. Sure, in the power-packed Rangers lineup that's not the easiest thing in the world, but those opposing hurlers might simply prefer to take their chances with others. JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 167.5 (-115)
HUNTER PENCE - Regular season hits
Over 165.5 -115
Under 165.5 -115
Pence had a great rookie season, hitting .322, but the sophomore jinx caught him last year and he dipped to .269. Most people look at him as someone with a big upside, so even if he is hitting lower in the order, he can reach this figure if he can get himself up into the .280s. Remember that he had 160 hits last year. At age 25, there is obviously quite a bit of upside, and the Astros will need his offense more this time around. JAY'S PLAY: OVER 165.5 (-115)
