posted March 20, 2009 at 12:30 EST in MLB Props
AL West Division Betting Preview - Angels Have it Locked Up
by BetUS Staff
The more things change, the more things stay the same in the American League West. After numerous roster moves all around, MLB betting enthusiasts shouldn’t be surprised if the standings are exactly the same in 2009 as they were last season.
That doesn’t mean it won’t get tighter. The revamped Oakland Athletics and potent Texas Rangers should be improved, while the front-running Los Angeles Angels are set to take a step back. In the Pacific Northwest, the Seattle Mariners are aiming to get back in the black after dropping wads of cash all year long.
Listed in order of 2008 finish; final record in parentheses
Los Angeles Angels (100-62, +23.25 units)
The Angels had the best record in baseball in 2008, but that didn’t matter much in the playoffs when the Boston Red Sox bounced them in the ALDS. Los Angeles had a profitable season nonetheless, even if the way it ended left a sour taste in backers’ mouths.
The Halos should regress in the win column after losing Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez to free agency, but they should still be able to play slightly over the 89.5-win total set by oddsmakers and win the division as –200 chalk. The addition of Bobby Abreu helps offset the loss of Teixeira, and will allow Vladimir Guerrero to play more games at designated hitter.
Pitching remains a strength for Los Angeles, which will lean on underrated ace John Lackey to lead one of the most balanced staffs in the American League.
Texas Rangers (79-83, +8.12)
Sporting potentially the most lethal offense in the AL, it certainly helps the Rangers that they play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Michael Young moves over to third base to make room for blue-chip prospect Elvis Andrus, who is being schooled by free agent acquisition Omar Vizquel on how to play the position.
There’s tons of value in Texas at +900 to win the division outright, although that might be a bit of reach considering Kevin Millwood is back to lead one of the worst rotations statistically in MLB. A sharper play is to grab the over on the 73.5-win total on the Rangers, who should do at least as well as they did last season.
The bullpen is surprisingly formidable, so if Josh Hamilton and the bats can keep Texas in the game early, the Rangers should remain a solid play for bettors.
Oakland Athletics (75-86, -7.26)
Billy Beane and the A’s changed their tune in the offseason, bringing in free agents Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and Nomar Garciaparra to bolster the roster. This flies in the face of the moneyball philosophy that typically underscored many of Beane’s moves over the past decade.
Say what you will, but the moves should pay dividends for Oakland backers, who suffered their worst season in a decade in ’08. Holliday is a premier hitter, Giambi has something left in the tank, and Cabrera is definitely an upgrade over Bobby Crosby at shortstop. The only questionable acquisition is Garciaparra, although he’ll likely be used in a reserve role.
If there’s any team that can upend the Angels, it’s the Athletics, who are priced at +225 to cash the division crown. The question mark is the pitching staff; outside of ace Justin Duchscherer, there’s not much there. Anytime you go into the season with Joey Devine as the closer, there has to be cause for concern.
Seattle Mariners (61-101, -36.57)
If you bet on the Mariners more than once last season, do you still have your shirt? Seattle bled cash for bettors in ’08, only one year after they contended in the AL West and for a wild card berth.
It’s hard to win games when you can’t score runs, and that should be the problem once again for the M’s. The fact that bringing Ken Griffey Jr. back to town for his swan song will actually help the offense is almost laughable. While still a major league caliber hitter, Junior is at the end of the line and will surely retire at season’s end. He’ll bat cleanup for Seattle.
Pitching is the only hope the Mariners have of playing over the 72.5-win number set by oddsmakers – as long as King Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard can manage to stay healthy.
