posted February 16, 2009 at 12:30 EST in MLB Props
AL East Division Betting Preview
by BetUS Staff
With pitchers and catchers having reported to spring training, it’s time for handicappers to brush up for what surely will be an interesting MLB betting season. The American League East is likely the toughest division on which to get a handle, with Tampa Bay, Boston, and New York all capable of winning the World Series – or battling underrated Toronto for third place if things don’t pan out.
Listed in order of 2008 finish; final record in parentheses
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (97-65, +27.96 units)
The Devil Rays won’t be the same valuable bet that vaulted them to the top of the MLB moneylist last season, but there’s no reason they can’t contend for the division title. Tampa Bay is certainly the team with the most bang on the AL East outright futures board, as the Rays are priced at +350 to outlast the Red Sox and Yankees once again.
Lefty phenom David Price comes out of the bullpen to join an excellent young rotation that already includes Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza, while former Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Pat Burrell was picked up in the offseason via free agency. Burrell’s addition solidifies the middle of the order, which already features emerging star Evan Longoria.
Boston Red Sox (95-67, +11.65 units)
You would think the Red Sox are due for a step back now that Manny Ramirez won’t be around for even half the season. Then you take a quick look at the pitching staff and realize Boston is arguably the sharpest play to win the American League at +350. With John Smoltz and Brad Penny coming to town to bolster a staff led by Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Jonathan Papelbon, the BoSox could send out Tim Wakefield as a sixth starter.
The key to profitability lies with the offense, which is minus the middle-of-the-order bat that Ramirez brought to the table. While reigning AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Bay are in the prime of their careers, David Ortiz and Mike Lowell are aging right before our eyes.
New York Yankees (89-73, -4.72 units)
The Yankees have more question marks than the rival Red Sox, and that was true well before Alex Rodriguez was outed for having used performance-enhancing drugs at the start of the decade. New York (-140) is favored to win the division based largely on its public status, but also because of the signings of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira. While the trio surely won’t live up to the monstrous expectations, they will shift the balance of power in the AL East considerably.
Will it be enough for the Yanks to return the money they lost last season? It depends on how much A-Rod can handle the pressure and to what extent veterans Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon have anything left in the tank.
Toronto Blue Jays (86-76, +2.27 units)
It’s tough being a Blue Jays backer. The team consistently finishes in the black, albeit usually well back of the division leaders in the standings. The loss of Burnett to the Big Apple hurts Toronto’s chances of making money, because it was the pitching staff that carried the Jays for the duration of 2008.
Roy Halladay is back to anchor the staff, but he can’t pitch every day. What Toronto needs to continue to cash is more runs: The Blue Jays ranked near the bottom of the AL in nearly every offensive category last season, and it’s difficult to see how things are going to change after Toronto failed to make any major moves in the offseason.
Baltimore Orioles (68-93, -13.81 units)
If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em, or in the case of the Orioles, if you can’t beat ‘em, rebuild. Baltimore brass is in the process of remaking the roster in the name of competing down the road, which is a smart move considering the O’s are priced as +4000 longshots to take the division crown.
Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Felix Pie represent one of the best young outfields in the game, while Aubrey Huff and Brian Roberts are still top-tier performers. For Baltimore to make inroads and become a sleeper wager for bettors, the pitching staff has to make serious steps towards respectability.
