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posted July 6, 2009 at 16:26 EST in MLB Free Picks

Winning Ways in Washington - Nationals at Rockies

Bookmark and Share by Eric Williams

Rockies to Snap Skid, Cover Run Line Against Nationals Behind Red-Hot Marquis

The Washington Nationals (24-55 SU, 32-47 RL, 34-42-3 O/U) will try to extend their modest two-game winning streak in the BetUS Sportsbook when they battle the Colorado Rockies (42-39 SU, 45-36 RL, 37-39-5 O/U) in the opener of a three-game set at Coors Field tonight at 8:30 PM ET.

The Nationals defeated the Atlanta Braves 5-3 on Sunday, cashing in for BetUS MLB sports betting members as a +130 underdog while the game’s  eight combined runs scored played Under the posted over/under total (9.5).

Nyjer Morgan went 3-5 with an RBI and a run scored for Washington, while Scott Olsen allowed only one run on eight hits in 8.2 innings.

The Rockies lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-3 as a -115 favorite on Sunday while the game’s seven total runs played Under the 8.5-run O/U total.

Troy Tulowitzi hit a solo home run for Colorado while Todd Helton went 2-4 with one RBI.

Tonight, the Nationals will give the ball to right-hander Craig Stammen (1-3, 5.44 ERA) while the Rockies counter with veteran right-hander Jason Marquis (10-5, 3.87 ERA).

Marquis limited the Los Angeles Dodgers to just two hits in a dominant complete-game performance in which he threw 66 of 86 pitches for strikes to help Colorado to a solid 3-0 win on Tuesday.

Stammen did not get a decision on Tuesday, allowing four runs on six hits in 5.1 innings of a 7-5 loss at Florida

Here is a look at tonight’s key baseball betting trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

  • The Nationals are 16-36 in their last 52 vs. National League West.
  • The Nationals are 4-10 in their last 14 games following a win.
  • The Nationals are 9-45 in their last 54 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • The Nationals are 1-4 in Stammen's last 5 starts as an underdog.
  • The Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
  • The Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • The Rockies are 5-1 in Marquis' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
  • The Rockies are 4-1 in Marquis' last 5 starts.
  • The Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • The Under is 5-2 in Stammen’s last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • The Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games following a loss.
  • The Under is 6-1 in Rockies last 7 overall.
  • The Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in Colorado.
  • The Nationals are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in Colorado.
  • The Nationals are 6-16 in the last 22 meetings.

MLB Odds

  • Washington Nationals +1½ -120
  • Craig Stammen –R +170
  • Colorado Rockies -1½ Ev
  • Jason Marquis –R -200
  • Over 10½ -125
  • Under 10½ +105

Analysis: The Washington Nationals may have won two straight games coming into tonight’s matchup, but they are going to have a tough time beating the Colorado Rockies and red-hot right-hander Jason Marquis – the only 10-game winner in the National league at the time of this writing.

Marquis has gone 2-1 with a 4.29 ERA over his last three starts while Nationals’ right-hander Craig Stammen has compiled a 1-1 record with a 4.76 ERA over the same span.

Despite dropping two straight and three of its last four overall, Colorado has gone a perfect 4-0 in their last four games as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and a blistering 6-1 in their last seven home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

The Rockies have also gone 5-1 in Marquis' last six starts with five days of rest and 4-1 in Marquis' last five starts overall.

The Nationals have gone an uninspiring 4-10 in their last 14 games following a win and an absolutely atrocious 9-45 in their last 54 road games against a right-handed starter, not to mention, 1-4 in Craig Stammen’s last 5 starts as an underdog.

In addition to taking the Colorado Rockies to win and cover the Run Line behind another fine performance from Jason Marquis, I also like the Under for this contest as it has gone 5-2 in Stammen’s last seven starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, 4-0 in Colorado’s last four games following a loss and 6-1 in the Rockies’ last seven games overall.

MLB Free Picks: Colorado Rockies -1½ Runs/Under 10½ Total Runs