posted July 3, 2009 at 15:45 EST in MLB Free Picks
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers - Two of the AL's Best
by Mike Rose

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers 8:05 ET
A pair of teams fighting for playoff positioning in the American League hook up in the Lone Star State, and BetUS Sportsbook will have all of the baseball betting action covered! On Friday night, the Tampa Bay Rays (44-36, +$316) will lock horns with the Texas Rangers (42-35, +$746) in the first of their critical three-game set.
The oddsmakers are expecting a pretty close match today, as the visitors are narrow -135 favorites, while the ‘total’ has been set at 10.5 over -115.
Tonight will be the second start for LHP Scott Kazmir since returning from the disabled list. He had a respectable first outing back on June 27th against Florida, as he only conceded one run in five innings of work, striking out five along the way. It was arguably his best start of the season, but manager Joe Maddon has to be concerned with the fact that his prized lefty is still averaging almost 20 pitches per inning. That outing also brought his ERA down to 7.28 for the season, which is higher than his L/2 seasons of ERAs added together. Opposing batters are hitting .306 against him this year, and his WHIP is an astronomical 1.86. If there is a big concern for the southpaw, it’s that his fastball just isn’t whipping up to the plate at 95 MPH like it used to. As a result, his strikeout total is lagging behind years past. His career K/9 is 9.57, but his K/9 this season is only 7.11. If there’s something for Rays’ bettors to hang their hats on, it’s that Kazmir has had a magnificent career against the Rangers. He is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in seven career starts, and Tampa Bay is 6-1 in those games.
Opposing the lefty will be RHP Tommy Hunter. This will be the third start of the season for the right-hander, who has been effective this season, but hasn’t gotten a ton of help along the way. In starts against San Diego and Oakland, he has a 3.86 ERA, and he has only allowed five runs in 11.2 innings. In both outings this year, Hunter has kept Texas in the game. It wasn’t his fault that the Rangers failed to score against the Padres, but he suffered the loss regardless. Hunter has never faced the Rays in his young career. The Rangers managed to win the final two games of their series against the Halos to start the week, and because of it, a strong series against Tampa Bay should keep them in first place.
The Rays won six of the nine meetings against the Rangers last season, but this is clearly a different Texas team. Kazmir is clearly the pitcher with the better stuff, but it’s hard to back him as a road favorite until he proves that his head is screwed on straight. Yes, Tampa Bay has been playing great baseball of late, but the Rangers should get the best of them today.
Rose’s Recommendation: 2* Texas Rangers +125
(Rating Scale: 1* - 5*)



