posted October 15, 2008 at 16:11 in MLB Free Picks
Phillies Look To Close out Dodgers on Road in Game 4
The Philadelphia Phillies (98-72 SU, 80-90 RL, 76-88-6 O/U), have set themselves up nicely to advance to the World Series for the first time in 15 years entering tonight’s Game 5 NLCS matchup against the suddenly-reeling Los Angeles Dodgers (88-81 SU, 85-84 RL, 78-85-6 O/U).
After pounding several Los Angeles relievers in Game 4 in a shocking, 7-5 comeback win, the Phillies will hand the ball to left-handed staff ace, Cole Hamels (16-10, 2.97 ERA) tonight to finish off the Dodgers in L.A.
Even if Hamels should fail to lead his team to victory tonight, the Phillies will have at least two more chances to advance, playing at home where the Dodgers haven’t won a single game all season long!
"I think it would be more exciting to clinch at home in front of the home crowd, but any time you can do it sooner I think makes it a little bit easier on your sense of worry or excitement," said Hamels, who has won each of his two postseason starts covering 15 innings while allowing a grand total of just two earned runs, while striking out a whopping 17 batters.
Philadelphia pounded L.A. relievers, Clayton Kershaw, Cory Wade and Jonathan Broxton, beginning in the sixth innings despite the fact that L.A.’s bullpen has been nearly rock-solid all season long.
"I didn't really see that coming. Our bullpen of late has been tremendous," said Game 4 starter Derek Lowe.
The Dodgers will counter with right-hander Chad Billingsley (17-11, 3.35 ERA), who was knocked senseless in his Game 2 start, allowing eight runs – seven earned – while walking three batters in just 2.1 innings on Friday.
"It's pretty much do or die," Billingsley said. "We've just got to come ready to play."
Dodgers outfielder Manny Ramirez has reached base 12 times in 18 plate appearances during this series, driving in at least one run in each game, but Philadelphia’s Shane ‘The Flyin’ Hawaiian’ Victorino has set a team playoff record with 11 RBIs and is almost literally on fire as well.
"This is what you play for as a kid. You play for it in the minor leagues, you get an opportunity and try to make the best of it," Victorino said. "I go out there every day I do the same thing. I'm not trying to change."
Here is a look at the key trends for each team, followed by my analysis and MLB Free Picks.
The Phillies are 7-1 in Hamels' last 8 starts vs. National League West.
The Phillies are 4-1 in Hamels' last 5 starts.
The Dodgers are 4-0 in Billingsley’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Dodgers are 6-1 in Billingsley’s last 7 home starts.
The Under is 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 starts overall.
The Over is 6-0-1 in Billingsley’s last 7 starts overall.
The Phillies are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
The Over is 19-7-2 in the last 28 meetings in Los Angeles.
The Phillies are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +135
Cole Hamels –L -120
Los Angeles Dodgers +1 ½ -155
Chad Billingsley –R +110
Over 7½ Ev
Under 7½ -120
Analysis: The Dodgers blew a golden opportunity to tie the series in Game 4 and will pay for it tonight when they face Hamels!
Hamels has been absolutely ‘lights out’ and I see no reason why that shouldn’t continue tonight. Chad Billingsley will have to pitch the best game of his career to keep L.A. in tonight’s contest and even then, it may not be enough as the Phillies just seem to come up with timely hit after timely hit and clearly have a ‘date with destiny.’
Take the Phils to finish of their NL rivals tonight despite being on the road.
MLB Free Picks: Phillies 5 Dodgers 2
