posted July 9, 2009 at 13:07 EST in MLB Free Picks
Parlay Pick from Fenway - Red Sox vs. Royals
The Boston Red Sox (51-33 SU, 45-39 RL, 36-41-7 O/U) will be looking to extend their modest two-game winning streak when they battle the Kansas City Royals (36-48 SU, 41-43 RL, 35-46-3 O/U) tonight at Fenway Park at 7 PM ET.
The Royals dropped their series finale against the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday, losing 3-1 and failing to cash in for BetUS MLB betting members as -135 road favorites.
Alberto Collaspo hit a solo home run for the Royals in a losing effort while starter Zack Greinke gave up three runs in the loss as the final score played Under the 8-run Over/Under total.
David ‘Big Papi’ Ortiz smacked a three-run homer and J.D. Drew also went ‘yard’ as the Red Sox defeated the Oakland A's 5-4 on Wednesday, cashing in for MLB sports betting enthusiasts as -180 favorites.
Tim Wakefield allowed 10 hits and three runs over six innings to record the win while the game's nine total runs played just Under the 9.5-run O/U total.
Tonight, the Royals will hand the ball to right-hander Hochevar (4-3, 5.08 ERA) while the Red Sox counter with veteran right-hander Brad Penny (6-3, 4.67 ERA).
Hochevar allowed four runs on nine hits – including two home runs – in six innings of a 6-4 win over the Chicago White Sox on Saturday.
Penny held the Seattle Mariners to two runs on six hits in six inning s of Boston’s 3-2 loss on Saturday.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.
The Royals are 4-0 in Hochevar's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Royals are 5-1 in Hochevar’s last 6 starts.
The Royals are 1-4 in Hochevar’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Red Sox are 4-1 in Penny’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Red Sox are 6-2 in Penny’s last 8 home starts.
The Under is 4-0 in Hochevar’s last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Under is 13-3-2 in Royals last 18 overall.
The Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 vs. American League Central.
The Under is 4-0 in Penny’s last 4 home starts.
The Under is 6-1 in Penny’s last 7 starts overall.
The Royals are 5-17 in the last 22 meetings in Boston.
The Royals are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings.
Kansas City Royals +1½ -115
Luke Hochevar –R +170
Boston Red Sox -1½ -105
Brad Penny –R -200
Over 9½ -105
Under 9½ -1115
Analysis: The Boston Red Sox are ranked 10th in hitting with a team batting average of .265. The Red Sox are averaging 5.2 runs per game this season.
The Red Sox are ranked 8th in pitching, with a team earned run average of 4.06. Opponents are hitting .262 against the Red Sox this season.
The Kansas City Royals are ranked a lowly 25th in hitting with a team batting average of .252. The Royals are averaging 3.9 runs per game this season.
The Royals are ranked 15th in pitching with a team earned run average of 4.29. Opponents are hitting .259 against the Royals this season.
Penny has been rock-solid over his last five starts, not allowing over three earned runs in any outing while not allowing a single run in two of those starts and a grand total of just seven earned runs during the span covering 28.2 innings.
The Boston Red Sox are the easy pick here tonight BetUS MLB sports betting members as they have gone 4-1 in their last five games against a right-handed starter, 4-1 in Brad Penny’s last five starts against a team with a losing record and 6-2 in Penny’s last eight home starts overall.
While the Royals have gone a perfect 4-0 in Luke Hochevar's last four starts against a team with a winning record and an encouraging 5-1 in Hochevar’s last six starts, the Royals haven’t been able to come through with Hochevar on the road, going 1-4 in Hochevar’s last five road starts against a team with a winning record.
I also like the Under for this contest with every key O/U trend pointing toward an Under outcome.
The Under has gone 4-0 in Hochevar’s last four starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, a blistering 13-3-2 in Kansas City’s last 18 games overall and 5-1 in Boston’s last six games against American League Central opponents.
Take the BoSox and the Under to double up on your winnings and fun!
MLB Free Picks: Boston Red Sox -1½ Runs/Under 9½ Total Runs
