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posted October 8, 2009 at 14:23 EST in MLB Free Picks

NLDS Game 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Bookmark and Share by Eric Williams

After calling Wednesday’s NLDS series opener between the Colorado Rockies (92-71 SU, 72-81-9 O/U, 85-77 RL) and Philadelphia Phillies (94-69 SU, 71-83-7 O/U, 83-78 RL), I am back with what should amount to another ‘sweet treat’ on today’s rematch between the two highest scoring team in the National League when they battle at Citizens Bank Park today at 2 PM ET.

The Phillies laid an emphatic 5-1 smackdown on the Rockies on Wednesday, covering the Run Line while the Under cashed in for all of you that believed it was going to be a pitchers duel.

The Phillies cashed in for baseball betting enthusiasts as -150 home favorites while the game’s six combined runs played Under the 8.5-run O/U total.

Cliff Lee tossed a complete game for the victory to lead the Phillies, retiring 16 consecutive batters at one point while Raul Ibanez went 2-for-4 with two RBIs.

Troy Tulowitzki drove in the lone run for the Rockies in a losing effort as Ubaldo Jimenez was smacked around, allowing nine hits and five runs in five innings in the loss.

Today, the Rockies will look to record a win behind ace right-hander Aaron Cook (11-6, 4.16) while the Phillies counter with 2008 World Series MVP southpaw, Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ERA).

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and MLB Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert MLB Free Picks.


  • Rockies are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. National League East.
  • Rockies are 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog.
  • Rockies are 6-2 in Cooks last 8 road starts.
  • Rockies are 5-2 in Cooks last 7 starts as an underdog.
  • Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
  • Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 playoff home games.
  • Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff games.
  • Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. National League West.
  • Phillies are 4-1 in Hamels' last 5 starts vs. National League West.
  • Phillies are 1-5 in Hamels' last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.


MLB Odds

  • Colorado Rockies +1½ -150
  • Aaron Cook –R +140
  • Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +130
  • Cole Hamels –L -160
  • Over 8½ -120
  • Under 8½ Ev


The Starters: Aaron Cook has gone 1-1 over his last three starts with a stellar 2.81 ERA while Cole Hamels has gone 0-2 over his last three starts with a high 7.02 ERA.

Analysis: Let me begin by saying that Colorado’s Aaron Cook has been throwing the ball very well lately, allowing just one earned run over his last two starts spanning 13.0 innings while striking out three and walking one.

However, in his two starts prior to that, Cook was absolutely lit up, allowing 11 earned runs over just 5.1 innings while striking out one and walking two.

Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels has been pounded in three consecutive starts, allowing a whopping 13 earned runs over 16.2 innings while striking out 11 and walking just five batters.

Having said that, I genuinely believe and fully expect the Phillies to pound Cook while Hamels tosses a gem.

Go figure right?

Well, first of all, Cook doesn’t strike out many batters and relies on his defense to make plays behind him, telling me Philadelphia’s prolific batting order will get a hold of at least a few of Cook’s pitches and drive them deep in tiny Citizen Bank Park.

I also like Hamels to amp up his game and get back to the mystifying pitcher he normally is.

In his two starts just prior to his three-start funk, Hamels allowed one earned run in two consecutive starts spanning 14.2 innings while striking out 16 batters and walking just two.

While the Rockies have gone an impressive 6-2 in their last eight games against National League East ballclubs and 5-2 in their last seven games as an underdog, Colorado will be facing a Phillies team that has gone a spotless 7-0 in their last seven playoff games as a favorite and a blistering 8-0 in their last eight playoff home games.

While Colorado has gone an encouraging 6-2 in Aaron Cook’s last eight road starts and 5-2 in Cooks last seven starts as an underdog, the Phillies have gone 4-0 in their last four playoff games, 8-1 in their last nine games against NL West ballclubs and 4-1 in Cole Hamels' last five starts against NL West opponents.

Add it all up, and I think it amounts to another solid Phillies win that plays Under the set O/U total for the second consecutive contest.

MLB Free Picks: Phillies -1½ Runs/Under 8½ Total Runs

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