posted October 15, 2009 at 18:00 EST in MLB Free Picks
NLCS Betting - Phillies and Dodgers Game 1
NLCS Game 1 – Phillies at Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers (96-70 SU, 84-80 RL, 73-83-8 O/U) and Philadelphia Phillies (98-67 SU, 79-85 RL, 72-79-13 O/U) will square off in a rematch of their 2008 National League Championship Series when they meet at Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of their 2009 NLCS showdown tonight at 8 PM ET.
After going a solid 5-2 in winning picks over the course of Philadelphia’s and L.A.’s respective NLDS series’, the NLCS should be no different.
The Phillies beat the Colorado Rockies 3- 1 in their NLS matchup, winning the series finale 5-4 on Monday as Jayson Werth's run-scoring single in the top of the ninth inning lifted the Phillies victory.
Philadelphia cashed in for BetUS MLB betting enthusiasts as a -105 road favorite while the final score played just Over the 8.5-run O/U total.
The Dodgers advanced to the NLCS by sweeping the favored St. Louis Cardinals, taking the series finale by a 5-1 count on Saturday.
The Dodgers cashed in for avid MLB gamblers as +150 underdogs while the game’s six combined runs played Under the 8.5-run Over/Under total.
Andre Ethier smacked a two-run homer in the win and scored twice while Vicente Padilla tossed seven scoreless innings for the victory.
Tonight, the Phillies will hand the ball to left-handed ace Cole Hamels (10-12, 4.39 ERA) while the Dodgers counter with southpaw Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.82 ERA).
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and MLB Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert MLB Free Picks.
- Phillies are 6- 1 in their last 7 playoff games.
- Phillies are 5- 1 in their last 6 playoff road games.
- Phillies are 10- 2 in their last 12 vs. National League West.
- Phillies are 9- 2 in their last 11 games as an underdog.
- Phillies are 4- 1 in their last 5 League Championship games.
- Phillies are 1- 5 in Hamels' last 6 road starts.
- Phillies are 1- 6 in Hamels' last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 0- 4 in Hamels' last 4 starts.
- Dodgers are 5- 0 in their last 5 overall.
- Dodgers are 4- 0 in their last 4 home games.
- Dodgers are 2- 5 in Kershaw’s last 7 home starts.
- Dodgers are 3- 9 in Kershaw’s last 12 starts.
- Dodgers are 1- 4 in Kershaw’s last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0- 1 in Hamels' last 4 starts vs. Dodgers.
- Under is 4- 1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
- Phillies are 4- 1 in Hamels' last 5 starts vs. Dodgers.
- Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Phillies are 11- 5 in the last 16 meetings.
MLB Odds
- Philadelphia Phillies +1 ½ -190
- Cole Hamels –L +120
- Los Angeles Dodgers -1 ½ +160
- Clayton Kershaw –L -140
- Over 7½ +105
- Under 7½ -125
The Starters: Cole Hamels has gone a dismal 0-3 over his last three starts with a high 7.98 ERA while Clayton Kershaw has gone 0-0 over his last three starts with a stellar 2.16 ERA.
Analysis: Philly’s Cole Hamels allowed 17 earned runs over his last four starts, spanning just 21.2 total innings. Yet, I really believe he can get back to being the dominant pitcher that he generally is in this outing.
Hamels allowed one earned run in two straight starts just prior to his four-game slide and undoubtedly realizes the importance of winning this opening NLCS contest.
L.A.s’ own lefty, Clayton Kershaw, has been very solid over his last three starts, allowing just four total earned runs spanning 16.2 innings.
But Something tells me the and the Dodgers are going down in this contest tonight, likely by just one run.
The Philadelphia Phillies have been an absolute beast in the postseason, going a stellar 6-1 SU in their last seven playoff games, 5-1 SU in their last six playoff road games and a torrid 10- 2 in their last 12 games against NL West ballclubs, negating the fact that the Dodgers have gone a spotless 5-0 SU in their last five games and 4-0 SU in their last four home games.
Philadelphia has gone a dismal 1- 5 in Cole Hamels' last six road starts, 1- 6 in Hamels' last seven starts against a team with a winning record and 0- 4 in Hamels' last four starts overall.
The Dodgers have struggled just as badly behind Clayton Kershaw, going a dismal 2- 5 in Kershaw’s last seven home starts, 3- 9 in Kershaw’s last 12 starts overall and just 1- 4 in Kershaw’s last five starts as a home favorite.
Again, the Phillies are my pick tonight as they’ve gone a solid 4- 1 in Cole Hamels' last five starts against Los Angeles Dodgers and 11- 5 in the last 16 meetings overall.
Phillies spanked the Dodgers 4- 1 in last season’s NLCS and have gone a bankroll-boosting 9- 2 in their last 11 games as an underdog.
With the Under going 3-1- 1 in the last five meetings, 3-0- 1 in Cole Hamels' last four starts against the Dodgers and 4- 1 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles, I like the Under to cash in as well.
Take the Phils, behind a strong performance from Cole Hamels, to record the SU win tonight.
