posted July 17, 2008 at 18:11 in MLB Free Picks

1) Atlanta Braves (O/U 31-61-3) The 2008 version of the Atlanta Braves has been very tough for MLB Handicappers and MLB betting faithful to dissect, but the one variable everyone can agree upon is the fact that they’re the best under wager in all of baseball. In their 95 games played to date, the under has cashed in at a 64% clip. The under has been a decent bet at Turner Field where its gone 27-19-2 ATS, but on the road, it’s an under bettors dream having gone 34-12-1 overall (72%!!!). The key to this wagering anomaly has been the Braves fantastic pitching staff, average defense, and poor offense. Their starting staff owns a collective ERA of 3.69 good for 5th best in the league, and its 1.30 combined WHIP currently ranks #8. When the starters outing is over, Manager Bobby Cox looks to his bullpen that comes in ranked 6th overall with a unit ERA of 3.22. The Braves field a decent hitting team that currently owns a .265 batting average good for 9th overall, but they struggle knocking those baserunners in evidenced by averaging just 4.43 runs per game (17th overall). Their big sluggers have all had stints on the DL or been sent down to the minors to work on their hitting mechanics. If Atlanta rediscovers how to score runs like in years past, they’re an exceptional MLB wager to take control of the underachieving NL East.

2) New York Yankees (O/U 33-58-3) I have to admit, it was really strange watching the All Star game take place in New York with the Yankees not sitting in the pole or second position of the AL East. That’s right, they’re currently looking up at both the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox for the top two spots within the division. That said, they have nothing to blame but their average pitching and hitting for their slippage in the ranks. Manager Joe Girardi’s club still plays exceptional defense having committed just 50 errors on the year good for 6th in the league. How can it not with A-Rod and Jeter on the left side of its infield? However, the club’s just average in both the hitting and pitching departments. The 4.59 runs per game its averaged throughout the first half of the season is good for 15th overall, and their team ERA of 4.12 is good for 14th. Add those three rankings up, and you have a mediocre club at best that’s turned into one of the best under bets in all of baseball. Ignoring the three pushes, it’s cashed at a 64% clip on the season. There’s no big disparity at home or on the road as the under is 28-17-3 ATS at Yankee Stadium and 30-16 ATS when they’re on the road. This trend is certain to continue unless the Yankees acquire a bat that will help them compete with both the Red Sox and Rays the remainder of the year.

3) Houston Astros (O/U 36-56-3) For the under to cash in 56 of the Astros 95 games to date means “Houston’s got a problem” considering Minute Maid Park’s widely known as one of the pristine launching pads in the entire league. Sure, they’ve played nine fewer games at home than on the road, but the under went 22-19-2 ATS in “The Juice Box” throughout the first half of the regular season. On top of that, the under went 34-17-1 ATS with Houston playing the role of visitor reeling in mega profits for the MLB betting public. Going by the rankings, their starting pitching staff is below average at best coming in ranked 25th with an ERA of 4.52, and the bullpen rings in at #20 with a unit ERA of 4.15. The offense has struggled to score only averaging 4.36 RPG good for the 20th ranking in that department, but the defense has played exceptionally well only committing 48 errors on the year good for the #2 ranking in all of baseball. Poor pitching plus poor scoring and a solid defense has turned one of the best over bets in all of baseball to one of the biggest irregularities the league had to offer throughout the first half of the season. If over’s don’t start cashing at Minute Maid in the second half, conspiracy theorists will start barking much like they did in Colorado when the humidors were thought to have lowered scoring at Coors Field.

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