posted May 2, 2008 at 13:41 EST in MLB Free Picks

BetUS MLB baseball betting odds: Boston -200, Tampa Bay +170; Total 9 (-110 each way)

The surging Tampa Bay Rays (16-12) will be looking to make a statement as they open up a three-game series on Friday night against the Boston Red Sox (17-13) as the two teams that are battling for first-place in the American League East get things underway at 7:05 PM ET at Fenway Park in Boston.

Edwin Jackson (2-2, 3.86 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay, while Clay Buchholz (1-2, 4.08 ERA), one of Boston's big pitching prospects, will start for the Sox, in this encounter between righties.

At BetUS Sportsbook, Boston is listed as a -200 favorite (Tampa Bay is +170), with a total of nine runs (you will lay -110 each way).

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)

* TB has won eight of its last nine games

* TB has played seven of its last eight games UNDER the total

* BOS has lost six of its last eight games

* BOS has played its last six games UNDER the total

* BOS has won nine of its last 12 home games

* BOS has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:

* TB has won four of the last five meetings

* Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total

* BOS has won 20 of the last 24 meetings as the home team

* Four of the last six meetings in Boston have gone UNDER the total

Things are looking up for the Tampa Bay franchise. The team has had a very successful stint at its 'other" location, Disney's Wide World of Sports in Orlando, winning six straight. The starting rotation has been much deeper than expected, and the bullpen has been one of baseball's best. There have been eight wins in the last nine games, and right now the Rays are in first place in the division at the latest point in its brief franchise history. On top of that, the staff's last-handed ace, Scott Kazmir, who led the league in strikeouts last season, is coming back to action on Sunday.

Whether Edwin Jackson winds up being the odd man out of the rotation when Kazmir joins Matt Garza off the DL may depend on how well he does in this start. Jackson looked untouchable at the season's outset, pitching brilliant games against the Yankees and Mariners, allowing just one total run. Then he got hit hard against the Yanks and White Sox. But manager Joe Haddon was very encouraged by his last start, a 2-1 win over this same Red Sox crew, as he held Boston to just five hits and a run in seven innings. Jackson tends to be hot and cold, but he is hot he is formidable.

Clay Buchholz pitched a no-hitter last year as a rookie, and aside from a disastrous outing against the Yankees on April 16, he's been pretty formidable. The Rays had a difficult time figuring him out just six days ago, as he opposed Jackson and gave up three hits in eight innings, striking out nine, though he was on the short end of that 2-1 score.

I have liked Tampa Bay from the beginning of the season, and while I don't know if they're necessarily going to challenge for the division title, I think they're going to flirt with the .500-mark for most of the season. There could be some value with their side, but I like the total better. These two pitchers hooked up and obviously had a good "book" on the other team, and both of these clubs are trending toward low-scoring games (Boston has played six straight unders, and Tampa Bay seven of its last eight).

That's the direction we're taking. It's UNDER the nine-run total as it is posted in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 9 (-110)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)