posted March 24, 2008 at 18:13 in MLB Free Picks

Starting Pitching:

The Washington Nationals exceeded expectations last year as most pundits had them pegged for more than 89 losses last year.

But they leave a pitcher friendly park and enter a hitter’s ballpark, which means their growth might stunt.

Their starting rotation is in shambles after John Patterson, who was pegged to be one of the top three starters, was released and after Shawn Hill, who is recovering from elbow and shoulder problems, was put on the 15-day DL.

Washington will now use Odalis Perez, Tim Redding, Matt Chico and Jason Bergmann. Perez was signed to a minor league contract after basically no team wanted him and now will pitch opening day.

This is probably the most inconspicuous group of starters around and now that they are moving into a hitters ballpark with higher expectations, this is the season where they will probably flop. That’s just Murphy’s Law.

Relief Pitching:

Although the Nats lack front line pitching, their bullpen should be capable – as it has been since they moved from Montreal – of keeping the team in games.

Chad Cordero is one of the best closers in the game, even though his stats from last year might not indicate that. He is still relatively young and should continue to improve.

Jon Rauch and Saul Rivera work as the setup men while veteran Ray King is the token left-hander.

Luis Ayala who battled injuries last year is also in the mix. He was a useful arm prior his elbow injuries and if he bounces back, the Nats might boast one of the top bullpens. Also, youngster Joel Hanrahan has been solid this spring.

Hitting:

Cristian Guzman, Felipe Lopez and Ronnie Belliard are battling for spots in the infield and for the leadoff role, which will likely end up in Guzman’s hands after he showed he good do the job last year. Historically, though, he hasn’t been a good hitter.

Lastings Milledge is a good prospect but needs to show he belongs at the Major League level. Ryan Zimmerman, who will hit third, is primed for a breakout season and might become more of a household name this year.

The cleanup spot is somewhat vacant after Dmitri Young, last year’s heartwarming story, showed up out of shape for training camp. He’s dealing with Diabetes and Nick Johnson’s return is not helping his cause.

Austin Kearns, who should enjoy the contours of the new ballpark, might be a fit in the cleanup role. Wily Mo Pena is expected to hit behind Kearns.

There is potential here but nobody is losing sleep at night wondering how to pitch to the Nats order. There isn’t one guy teams will be scared to pitch to either.

Overall, the lineup looks solid but not nearly good enough to make the Nationals a competitor.

Regular Season Wins: 71.5

Washington won 73 games last year and even though there seems to be improvements on the roster, they may not be significantly better.

I get the feeling that they overachieved with no expectations last year and will underachieve with moderate expectations this year.

Their starting rotation is a disaster, their batting order is a bit better than decent and they have a quality bullpen. Unfortunately, out of those three facets, the bullpen is the only one that can’t win them games. It can save them and keep them close, but it can’t win games for them.

At least they have a cool new stadium.

MLB Free Picks: Under 71.5

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