posted July 18, 2008 at 13:47 EST in MLB Free Picks

BetUS MLB betting odds: Florida -120, Philadelphia - Even; Total 9

The Florida Marlins (50-45) return from the All-Star break and resume their chase in the National League East, and on Friday night they host the Philadelphia Phillies (52-44) in an NL game that is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET at Dolphin Stadium (natural turf) right outside Miami.

Southpaw Jamie Moyer (8-6, 3.95 ERA) will be the starter for the Phillies, while Ricky Nolasco (10-4, 3.89 ERA) gets the assignment for Florida.

At BetUS online sportsbook, Florida is listed as a -120 favorite (Philadelphia is even money), with a total of nine runs (it is -110 each way).

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this online wagering matchup:

* PHIL has won four of its last five games
* PHIL has won four of its last five road games
* PHIL has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
* FLA has won six of its last eight games
* FLA has played eight of its last 11 games OVER the total
* FLA has won four of its last six home games

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

* PHIL has won five of the last eight meetings
* The last three meetings have gone UNDER the total
* PHIL has won four of the last five meetings as the road team
* The last five meetings in Florida have gone OVER the total

The National League East has turned into quite a barn burner. The Mets have now won ten games in a row, and they would be atop the division right now if it weren't for the fact that Philadelphia and Florida have both played well. The Phillies are winners of four of their last five games, while the Marlins have captured six of their last eight games. At present, Philadelphia still holds the lead, but it is only a half-game over the Mets, with Florida just 2.5 games back. This is a three-way race, and it is going to be up to the low-budget Marlins to make sure it stays like that all the way to the end.

Ryan Howard is hitting homers with more frequency, and even though he was not selected for the All-Star game, he went into the break leading the NL in both homers and RBI's. With Chase Utley and Pat Burrell having big years, and Jimmy Rollins starting to come on, the Phils are well-positioned to keep things going offensively. And they better start doing that for their aging starter on Friday.

Jamie Moyer, the 45-year-old, has been a pleasant surprise for the Phillies, who have not gotten consistent enough starting pitching from enough people. He has now gone seven starts without allowing more than three runs in any game, although Philadelphia has lost four of his last five outings because they haven't been able to put a lot of runs on the board (just 14 in his last six starts). Six of Moyer's last seven starts have gone under the total.

Moyer pitched a brilliant game against Florida on June 12, limiting the Marlins to just two hits over eight innings in a 3-0 victory, He had also faced the Marlins eleven days before, and yielded five runs in seven innings in a game Philadelphia also won (7-5). He has won his last five decisions against Florida.

With all the talk about the expected development of pitchers like Scott Olsen and Andrew Miller in the Florida rotation, the guy who is rapidly proving himself to be the ace is Ricky Nolasco, who has rebounded from a very shaky start to become one of the National League's better young right-handers. Nolasco has come on strong lately; in his last seven starts, each of which Florida has won, he has allowed as many as three runs only once. And his strikeout-to-walk ratio during that period has been a stunning 48-5.

Nolasco has turned in two solid efforts against Philadelphia, holding the Phils to a pair of runs on four hits in 6-2/3 innings on May 31, then coming back ten days later (June 10) to allow no earned runs (three were unearned) over six innings. He scored wins in both games.

Having seen Nolasco a couple of times, the Phillies might have more success against him. There is no question that increased run support for Moyer is inevitable. And with Howard finding his stroke lately, and the others showing no signs of slumping, we'll take the dog here. That's the Phillies, at even money in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: PHILADELPHIA (Even)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)