posted July 14, 2008 at 17:52 in MLB Free Picks

BetUS Sportsbook bettors will be focused on Monday night's American League Home Run Derby with great anticipation - at least that's what I'm thinking. And because there is a plethora of betting odds and propositions on this online wagering contest, the corner stone of the All-Star pre-game festivities, I thought it apropos to concentrate a little more on these additional All Star Game betting options as they are available at BetUS.

I wanted to break down the "league vs. league" prop, for example, which is expressed not in whether the AL or NL will hit more home runs, but which league will actually produce the ultimate winner of the Home Run Derby contest. In that category, it is a "pick'em":

BetUS MLB Proposition Odds

Winning League in Home Run Derby

American League -115

National League -115

To examine this, you have to look at the individual odds on each of the players as well, making note of what percentage chance of winning each of those prop numbers represents (and with each of their current home run totals in parentheses):

Lance Berkman +375 = .211 (22 - Tie 8th NL)

Chase Utley +450 = .182 (25 - 3rd NL)

Dan Uggla +700 = .143 (23 - Tie 4th NL)

Josh Hamilton +350 = .222 (21 - Tie 3rd AL)

Ryan Braun +700 = .143 (23 - Tie 4th NL)

Grady Sizemore +500 = .167 (23 - 1st AL)

Evan Longoria +750 = .118 (16 - Tie 14th AL)

Justin Morneau +450 = .182 (14 - Tie 21st AL)

This field is priced out at about 136%, when you do the calculations. This is actually not bad value at all for BetUS to give the customer in terms of a "field" bet. If there were no "edge" built in for the bookmaker, the total probability for all the players combined would have added up to 100%. But I have seen similar fields to this in the past (some of them made up by myself) where the percentage was 150% and up, so this is not a bad thing at all.

And when you add up the percentage values of the American League players (Hamilton, Sizemore, Longoria, Morneau) and compare them to the National League players (Berkman, Utley, Uggla, Braun), who come up with roughly the same figure, which according to my own calculations (I may be a hundredth of a point off), .679 for each. That's what makes the AL and NL a pick'em proposition (laying -115 on each side) here.

So it comes down to where the "hunch" goes on either side. Personally, I like the value on Grady Sizemore, as I stated in another piece here at the "Locker Room." If there is a backup choice, I would pick Longoria, the Tampa Bay Rays' rookie who has hit 16 homers since coming to the big leagues in the second week of the season.

I realize that rookies don't often shine in this event, but Longoria comes into the proceedings as one of the better "pure" home run hitters in this field, and

Let's take a few more of these matchups:

Dan Uggla -115

Evan Longoria -115

- If you were using the BetUS as a guidepost, you would look upon Uggla as the guy with some value, since he is +700 in the BetUS odds as opposed to Longoria at +750. But as I said, I favor Longoria over a lot of these hitters, so I would side with the rookie.

Justin Morneau -140

Evan Longoria +110

Josh Hamilton -200

Evan Longoria +160

-- Here you've got Longoria as the underdog. I don't know if there is all the value in the world as he is positioned against Morneau, the American League MVP from a couple of years ago, but I think he could make for a winning play in the head-to-head against Hamilton, who may walk away with the AL MVP this season.

Sizemore's best matchup may be with Lance Berkman, against whom he is even money (Berkman is -130). I certainly wouldn't lay chalk with any competitor in this contest, acknowledging, of course, that anything can happen.

Go to the BetUS sportsbook today and take a swing at Major League Baseball online betting. We have the most current baseball odds and lines, as well as player, game and series props throughout the MLB baseball season. To help you bet on sports, check out the Free Picks section of the Locker Room for sports betting free picks and predictions. Join BetUS to experience the best in online sports betting action!

(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)