posted July 2, 2009 at 17:01 EST in MLB Free Picks
Giants to Nab a Win behind Zito - San Fran vs. St. Louis
Giants to Nab SU Win, Give Zito Support Against Cardinals, Struggling Wellemeyer
The San Francisco Giants (42-35 SU, 32-37-7 O/U, 47-29 RL) and St. Louis Cardinals (42-38 SU, 36-40-4 O/U, 38-42 RL) will both be looking to record an SU and RL win in the BetUS Sportsbook when they battle at Busch Stadium tonight at 7 PM ET.
Colby Rasmus went 2-for-5 and homered in the 10th inning to lift the Cardinals to a 2-1 victory over the Giants on Wednesday, helping the club cash in for sports gambling faithful as -155 favorites while the three combined runs played well Under the 7.5-run O/U total.
Bengie Molina drove in the only run for the Giants in a losing effort.
Tonight, the Giants will look to get back in the win column by handing the ball to veteran left-hander Barry Zito (4-7, 4.55 ERA) while the Cardinals counter with right-hander Todd Wellemeyer (6-7, 5.68 ERA).
Zito gave up three runs on three hits in 5 2-3 innings Saturday in Milwaukee, but didn't factor in the Brewers' 7-6 win.
Wellemeyer allowed three runs on four hits and four walks in just 2.1 innings in a 5-3 win over Minnesota on Saturday.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.
The Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
The Giants are 10-3 in their last 13 games following a loss.
The Giants are 8-3 in Zito’s last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.
The Giants are 2-5 in Zito’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
The Cardinals are 11-2 in their last 13 Thursday games.
The Cardinals are 16-6 in their last 22 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
The Cardinals are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Cardinals are 6-1 in Wellemeyer’s last 7 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 Thursday games.
The Over is 5-1 in Zito’s last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
The Over is 5-1 in Zito’s last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
The Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
The Under is 6-1 in Wellemeyer’s last 7 Thursday starts.
The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
The Giants are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis.
The Giants are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
San Francisco Giants +1 ½ -175
Barry Zito –L +115
St. Louis Cardinals -1 ½ +155
Todd Wellemeyer –R -135
Over 9 +105
Under 9 -125
Analysis: Both starting pitchers in this matchup have largely struggled over their last three starts, with Barry Zito going 1-1 with a high 6.61 ERA and Todd Wellemeyer an identical 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA.
Zito has also recorded a dismal 0-3 career mark with a 4.86 ERA against the Cardinals in three starts since coming to the Giants back in 2007.
The left-hander went 3-1 in June but had a 5.81 ERA.
The Giants have also failed to support Zito very well this season, giving the southpaw just 2.93 runs of support recently. The Giants have failed to give him any consistent run support, Todd Wellemeyer has been mired in a nearly month-long slump, going just 1-2 with a high 7.18 ERA over his last five starts, allowing opponents to hit a blistering .349 against him during the span. Wellemeyer is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three career starts against San Francisco.
With the Cardinals playing pretty poorly coming into this contest, (they’ve won just three of 10 coming into tonight’s contest) and Todd Wellemeyer pitching very poorly, the San Francisco Giants are the correct pick to win this game.
The Giants have shown a nice ability to bounce back after a loss, going 10-3 in their last 13 games following a loss. The Giants have also gone an encouraging 4-1 in their last five games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game and 8-3 in Barry Zito’s last 11 starts with four days of rest.
While the Cardinals have posted a nice 16-6 mark in their last 22 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, St. Louis has also gone an uninspiring 1-5 in their last six games as a favorite and a winless 0-6 in their last six games versus a left-handed starter.
I also like the Under in this matchup as it has gone 5-0 in the Cardinals last five games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 6-1 in Wellemeyer’s last seven Thursday starts.
Take the Giants for the SU win while the Under cashes in.
MLB Free Picks: San Francisco Giants SU Win/Under 9 Total Runs
