posted July 6, 2009 at 19:49 EST in MLB Free Picks
Giant Steps - Florida at San Francisco
The Florida Marlins (43-40 SU, 45-38 RL, 41-37-5 O/U) will try to extend their modest two-game winning streak in the BetUS Sportsbook when they battle the San Francisco Giants (44-37 SU, 49-31 RL, 34-38-8 O/U) at AT&T Park tonight at 10 PM ET.
The Marlins spanked the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, winning 5-0 to cash in for BetUS MLB sports betting members as a -155 favorite while the final score played Under the 8.5-run O/U total.
Jeremy Hermida went 2-4 with an RBI and a run scored in the win while Ricky Nolasco pitched eight shutout innings, allowing only three hits with 12 strikeouts.
The Giants were routed by the Houston Astros on Sunday, losing 7-1 as a +105 underdog while the game’s eight combined runs caused this game to play out as a Push against the posted O/U total.
Rich Aurilia hit a solo home run for San Francisco in a losing effort.
Tonight, the Marlins will hand the ball to left-hander Sean West (3-2, 4.06 ERA) while the Giants counter with red-hot right-hander Matt Cain (9-2, 2.48 ERA).
Cain limited the St. Louis Cardinals to one run on six hits in seven innings on Wednesday but failed to record a decision in San Francisco’s 2-1 defeat in 10 innings.
West gave up five runs on eight hits in 4.1 innings in Tuesday's rain-shortened victory against Washington.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.
The Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
The Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
The Marlins are 4-1 in West’s last 5 starts.
The Marlins are 1-4 in West’s last 5 starts as an underdog.
The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
The Giants are 5-0 in Cain’s last 5 home starts.
The Giants are 4-0 in Cain’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Under is 4-0-1 in Marlins last 5 vs. National League West.
The Under is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 road games.
The Under is 4-0 in Cain’s last 4 Monday starts.
The Under is 5-0 in Cain's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings.
The Marlins are 10-24 in the last 34 meetings in San Francisco.
Florida Marlins +1½ -150
Sean West –L +145
San Francisco Giants -1 ½ +130
Matt Cain –R -165
Over 8 -120
Under 8 Ev
Analysis: The Florida Marlins are playing excellent baseball coming into tonight’s matchup, having won five of its last six overall.
However, the Marlins have also dropped five of its last six road contests while also going an uninspiring 3-6 in San Francisco since 2006.
Florida’s Sean West has also been spotty at best over his last three starts, going 1-1 with a high 6.28 ERA while allowing five earned runs in two of those starts.
San Francisco’s Matt Cain is 0-1 over the same span but has recorded a stellar 2.86 ERA during the stretch while limiting the opposition to just one earned run in three of his last four starts covering 31.0 innings.
The Giants have gone a perfect 5-0 in their last five games versus a left-handed starter and a nearly spotless 5-1 in their last six home games overall.
San Francisco is the correct pick for tonight’s contest BetUS MLB sports betting members as they have also gone 5-0 in Matt Cain’s last five home starts and 4-0 in Cain’s last four home starts against a team with a winning record.
While the Marlins have gone an encouraging 5-1 in their last six games overall and 4-1 in Sean West’s last five starts, the Marlins have also gone just 1-4 in West’s last five starts as an underdog.
All key trends also point to a solid ‘Under’ outcome with the Under going 4-1 in Florida’s last five road games, 5-0 in Cain’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
MLB Free Picks: San Francisco Giants -1½ Runs/Under 8 Total Runs
