posted July 8, 2009 at 17:28 EST in MLB Free Picks
Dodgers to keep Streak Alive against Shaky Perez and the Mets
The Los Angeles Dodgers (53-30 SU, 39-44 RL, 37-39-7 O/U) will look to win their third consecutive game when they take on the New York Mets (39-43 SU, 36-46 RL, 36-41-5 O/U) at Citi Field tonight at 7 PM ET.
The Dodgers spanked the Mets 8-0 on Tuesday night as Manny Ramirez went 2-for-4 with three RBI to help the Dodgers cash in for BetUS MLB betting members as -150 road favorites while the final score played Under the 8.5-run O/U total.
Orlando Hudson went 2-for-5 with two RBI for the Dodgers while Clayton Kershaw earned the win after tossing six scoreless innings for Los Angeles.
Tonight, the Dodgers will hand the ball to right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (3-4, 3.91 ERA) while the Mets counter with left-hander Oliver Perez (1-2, 9.97 ERA).
Kuroda allowed three runs on four hits in 5.1 inning s of a 6-3 win over the San Diego Padres on Friday while Perez was rocked for four runs on just five hits in 2.1 innings of New York’s 6-5 loss to Philadelphia on Thursday.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.
The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
The Dodgers are 5-1 in Kuroda's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
The Dodgers are 4-1 in Kuroda’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Mets are 3-14 in their last 17 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
The Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
The Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Mets are 1-4 in Perez’s last 5 home starts.
The Mets are 1-6 in Perez’s last 7 starts.
The Under is 7-1 in Kuroda’s last 8 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Under is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 vs. National League West.
The Over is 11-2-2 in Perez’s last 15 starts overall.
The Under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.
The Dodgers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
The Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in New York.
The Dodgers are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in New York.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +110
Hiroki Kuroda –R -150
New York Mets +1½ -130
Oliver Perez –R +130
Over 8½ -105
Under 8½ -115
Analysis: The New York Mets are ranked an excellent sixth in hitting with a team batting average of .269 while also ranking 16th in pitching, with a team earned run average of 4.29.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are ranked 3rd in hitting with a team batting average of .273 while also ranking second in pitching with a team earned run average of 3.53.
Hiroki Kuroda has gone 2-1 over his last three starts but has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts while giving up four runs twice and five runs in one other outing.
Oliver Perez however, has been even worse lately, giving up a whopping 15 earned runs over his last three starts covering just 11.1 innings.
Despite Hiroki Kuroda’s so-so performances recently, I like the Los Angeles Dodgers to lay another whipping on the Mets tonight as their prolific offense knocks struggling Mets starter Oliver Perez senseless.
The Mets are just 1-4 in Perez’s last five home starts and a pitiful 1-6 in Perez’s last 7 starts overall. To make matters worse, the Mets, losers of four straight and eight of its last 10 overall, are just 3-14 in their last 17 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 1-5 in their last six games after allowing five runs or more in their previous contest.
The Dodgers have recorded a solid 4-1 mark in their last five games on grass while going an encouraging 5-1 in Kuroda’s last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-1 in Kuroda’s last five road starts against a team with a losing record. In addition to taking the Dodgers in this contest, I also say play the Over as it has gone 11-2-2 in Oliver Perez’s last 15 starts overall, 5-1 in L.A.’s last six games against a team with a losing record and 5-1 in the Dodgers’ last six road games.
MLB Free Picks: Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ Runs/Over 8½ Total Runs
