posted July 2, 2009 at 15:40 EST in MLB Free Picks
Brew Crew and the Cubbies from Wrigley Field
The Milwaukee Brewers (42-36 SU, 39-38-1 O/U, 42-36 RL) and Chicago Cubs (37-38 SU, 31-41-3 O/U, 35-40 RL) will each be looking to record an SU and RL win for BetUS MLB sports betting members when they square off at Wrigley Field tonight at 8 PM ET.
The Brewers were shutout by the New York Mets on Wednesday, falling 1-0 in the series finale and failing to cash in for baseball bettors as -230 favorites while the final score played Under the 7.5-run Over/Under total.
The Cubs defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-1 on Wednesday to cash in for BetUS MLB betting enthusiasts as -140 favorites while the final score played Under the 8.5-run Over/Under total.
Kosuke Fukudome went 2-for-4 at the plate with a solo home run to lead the Cubs to victory.
Tonight, the Brewers will hand the ball to right-hander Seth McClung (0-0, 6.75 ERA) while the Cubs counter with right-hander Ryan Dempster (4-5, 4.09 ERA).
McClung allowed three earned runs on six hits in four innings of a 7-6 win over the San Francisco Giants on Saturday, but failed to record a decision in the win.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.
The Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
The Brewers are 16-5 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series.
The Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Brewers are 6-2 in McClung’s last 8 starts on grass.
The Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
The Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
The Cubs are 5-1 in Dempster’s last 6 Thursday starts.
The Cubs are 21-7 in Dempster’s last 28 home starts.
The Cubs are 1-4 in Dempster’s last 5 starts as a favorite.
The Over is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
The Under is 9-2-1 in McClung’s last 12 starts on grass.
The Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 overall.
The Under is 5-1 in Dempster’s last 6 starts overall.
The Cubs are 5-2 in Dempster’s last 7 starts vs. Brewers.
The Over is 13-6-2 in the last 21 meetings.
Milwaukee Brewers +1 ½ -160
Seth McClung –R +11530
Chicago Cubs -1 ½ +140
Ryan Dempster –R -150
Over 9 +105
Under 9 -125
Analysis: The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are both struggling despite each ballclub winning two of their last four games coming into this contest but getting shut out twice in the process.
The Cubs have been struggling at the plate for some time now, having scored just 129 runs since May 19, the fewest in the majors over that span.
Chicago has also been handed six shutout losses during the span while going an uninspiring 16-23 in those 39 games.
The Cubs and Brewers split their first six contests this season, all at Miller Park.
Despite their recent struggles, I like the Chicago Cubs to grab a win in tonight’s contest as they finally give flame-throwing right-hander Ryan Dempster some long overdue run support.
Dempster went 0-2 in five June starts, but posted a solid 3.23 ERA in the month. Unfortunately, the Cubs gave him just 2.35 runs of support per nine innings while losing all five games in the process.
Seth McClung has given up eight earned runs over his last nine innings pitched and should take a loss tonight if the Cubs swing the bats respectably at the very least.
The Cubs have gone a spotless 4-0 in their last four home games, 5-1 in Dempster’s last six Thursday starts and 21-7 in Ryan Dempster’s last 28 home starts.
The Brewers are a solid 4-1 in their last five road games against a team with a losing record but have also gone 1-4 in their last five road games against a right-handed starter.
With both ballclubs struggling to score runs, I also like the Under to cash in for BetUS MLB sports betting members as it has gone 5-1 in Ryan Dempster’s last six starts overall and 9-2-1 in Seth McClung’s last 12 starts on grass.
MLB Free Picks: Chicago Cubs -1½ Runs/Under 9 Total Runs
