posted March 17, 2008 at 14:48 EST in MLB Free Picks

The sun came up today, there’s still snow in Canada at the end of March, Britney Spears’ life is still a mess and the Kansas City Royals are still terrible.

And the experiments on their roster continue.

The Royals have one borderline top-flight starter in Gil Meche and they are rolling the dice with their other five arms.

Brian Bannister had a solid rookie season but most pitchers struggle in their sophomore season as hitters learn to adjust. Zack Greinke is in the third slot and is still a player who is long on potential but short on consistency.

Brett Tomko and Mike Maroth are at the back and serve as the washed up veterans that the Royals love so much.

Meche, Greinke and Bannister have to post career-years (I’m talking All-Star seasons) and Tomko, Maroth and/or Jorge De La Rosa have to be steadily good (which is uncharacteristic for them) for the Royals to even have a chance at finishing in the top three in their division.

With such garbage at the back of the rotation, Luke Hochevar, the first pick overall in the 2006 draft might get a shot earlier than expected.

The Royals have a 6.82 ERA in their first 11 exhibition games this season.

Relief Pitching:

The Royals have an average bullpen, anchored by effective closer Joakim Soria. He’s not world-class, but there are bigger concerns. Ryan Braun and Joel Peralta are so-so, while the trio of left-handers, Ron Mahay, Jimmy Gobble and John Bale won’t exactly induce nightmares in opposing lineups.

If Yasuhiko Yabuta, an import from Japan, can be reliable as a setup guy, the Royals should be alright.

The problem is that with an average pitching staff, the bullpen will likely get stretch and at some point in the season collapse.

Hitting:

They wouldn’t be the Royals if they weren’t banking on young players to produce and that’s exactly the case again this year.

For the Royals to take a step forward, David DeJesus, Mark Teahen, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, John Buck, Tony Pena Jr. and Ryan Shealy need to breakout in a big way. In case you weren’t counting, that’s seven of the nine regular batters in the Royals lineup.

Their main source of power will be Jose Guillen, who will be suspended to start the season for violating the MLB’s drug policy.

There is a lack of power across the board and none of the young players – maybe outside of Mark Teahen – can be considered reliable.

Regular Season Win Total: 73.5

The Kansas City Royals won 69 games last year and the books are expecting them to improve. That might be too much to expect considered this roster is shoe-stringed with projects and few proven players.

There aren’t necessary a ton of holes across this roster, except for maybe the fourth and fifth spots in the pitching rotation, but that is optimistically projecting that the Royals youth can step it up and play like regulars.

Based on simple logic, I’ll say the Royals don’t win 74 games. They won 69 last year and didn’t make any significant changes to suggest that they will be better.

Pick: Under 73.5

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