posted August 11, 2009 at 13:32 EST in MLB Betting Trends
Worst Home Umps in the Majors
by Mike Rose
Beyond finding the best pitchers to back or to fade and figuring out which lineups are set to click or to flop, another very important aspect to baseball betting is the umpire. BetUS presents this week’s list of the umpires that you should be paying attention to when you’re looking to back a road side this year, or looking to stay away from when trying to back a host…
Mike Estabrook (2-10, -$1,135) Estabrook may not have umped many games this year, but he’s been an absolute nightmare for home teams. The scariest part about his 2-10 record for the hosts has been the quality of pitchers that he has been knocking off. Zach Duke, James Shields, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and John Danks have all been beaten as hosts. There just hasn’t been any type of home team that has thrived with Estabrook calling balls and strikes. Short favorites of -140 or better are 0-4 on the season, while big favorites of -141 or worse are just 2-3; home underdogs are 0-3. Run production has been a huge issue for home teams with Estabrook calling balls and strikes, as they’re averaging just 3.50 runs per game. It also doesn’t help when road teams are averaging outscoring home teams by over 2.50 runs per game.
Mike Reilly (9-14, -$980) It’s never a good sign for home team bettors when they’re not winning in situations where guys like, CC Sabathia, Jered Weaver, Derek Lowe, Edinson Volquez, and Felix Hernandez are losing to the likes of Brian Tallet, Graham Taylor, Yovani Gallardo, Clayton Kershaw, and Francisco Liriano. Reilly narrowly posted a winning season for home teams last season (+$93), and that came on the heels of three straight losing seasons, averaging almost five units of losses per season in that stretch. Reilly was on a decent tear for home teams from the middle of June through the end of July (6-2 in those eight games), but he has started the month of August with a pair of losses for hosts, including when the Dodgers were beaten as heavy favorites against the Braves on August 8th.
Paul Emmel (8-14, -$885) Emmel has seen a lot of runs hit the board for road teams of late, as the visitors are outscoring the hosts by an average of 1.05 runs per game in his 22 starts behind the dish this season. Home underdogs have been especially miserable for Emmel this year. They’re still looking for their first win of the season, as they are a stunning 0-8. Only one of those underdogs was greater than a +130 puppy. Emmel was the umpire on the mound when Anaheim’s Matt Palmer suffered one of his two losses on the season, and he also called balls and strikes for some other alarming results, including when Jason Marquis beat Chad Billingsley and when Casey Janssen beat Scott Feldman. Home teams haven’t strung together two straight wins with Emmel behind the dish since his first two starts of the season. That’s bad news for his next home team, as Angels knocked off the Rangers at home in his most recent outing.



