posted June 8, 2009 at 10:35 EST in MLB Betting Trends
NL Central Update - Its Anyone's Race
by Charles Jay
Last year, the National League Central division was the only one with two teams in the NL playoffs - the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers, who came on at the end after making a managerial change. This season things are far from settled, as the defending division champs (Chicago) are just off the pace, looking to make a move, while everybody is theoretically within striking distance of Milwaukee. This division boasts three of the top five bullpens, statistically speaking, in the majors.
Let's look at where this division stands now, as we list the odds on each team to win the division at BetUS, with the record as of the conclusion of Wednesday's games in parentheses:
BetUS Sportsbook Odds To Win NL Central
Chicago Cubs +105 (26-25)
Cincinnati Reds +600 (28-24)
Houston Astros +10000 (23-28)
Milwaukee Brewers +250 (31-22)
Pittsburgh Pirates +7000 (24-28)
St Louis Cardinals +275 (30-23)
The CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at BetUS) are obviously getting most of the respect right now, and when they are firing on all cylinders, there is no doubt that they are among the elite teams in baseball. But where's the artillery? Alfonso Soriano has 13 homers but a .243 average. Derrek Lee (six homers) is just a shell of his former self. Geovany Soto is being victimized by the sophomore jinx, but he's got bumps and bruises. Milton Bradley has been quite underwhelming. I wouldn't count on all those guys suddenly getting red-hot over the last two-thirds of this season. There's nothing to get crazy about in the bullpen, either; the Cubs, who let Kerry Wood go in the off-season, are ranked 21st in baseball in the bullpen (4.68 ERA). I'd be looking for some other team to provide value here.
I wonder how many people thought the MILWAUKEE BREWERS (+250 at BetUS) were going to be able to roar into the playoffs like they did last season, having to spend a whole year without the pitching duo of C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets. Yet they topped the division as of the start of Thursday's games. Their big free agent find was future Hall of Fame reliever Trevor Hoffman, who through the first 53 games of the season has still not given up an earned run. Hoffman has 14 saves, 15 strikeouts and one walk, a WHIP ratio of 0.44 WHIP and some support from this corner for the MVP award, much the same way I thought Brad Lidge deserved it last season. Hoffman has to give up some runs sooner or later, however, and these starters are fair-to-middlin'. Rickie Weeks, who's been known to produce a few runs, is out, and there aren't enough position players living up to their reputation for us to be comfortable backing the Brew Crew.
A lot of people figure the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (+275 at BetUS) are always going to be close to the top in this division with Tony LaRussa as the manager, and hey, his results do, to a certain extent, speak for themselves. On the positive side, this is a team that is dripping pitching; Chris Carpenter has been loaded with awesomeness (0.62 ERA in five starts) and there's nothing at all wrong with Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse and Joe Piniero. However, unless the Cards get someone who can offer support to Albert Pujols and his crazy numbers (16 HR, 45 RBI, .343) in this lineup, they'll be another team that almost got it done.
Before the season I designated the CINCINNATI REDS (+600 at BetUS) as a team that could come close to the transformation the Tampa Bay Rays experienced during 2008. So far the Reds are looking like a team that could challenge for a playoff berth; as of the end of Wednesday's action they are just 2.5 games out of the division lead and 1.5 games behind St. Louis, which at the moment is the wild card front-runner. One potential setback here involves the mysterious case of their best position player, Joey Votto, who got out to a very good start (.357) and apparently is a victim of an anxiety disorder right now. This pitching staff could really use some more production out of Edinson Volquez, last year's sensation who has not been un-hittable, or anything close to it, thus far (4.35 ERA).
The PITTSBURGH PIRATES (+7000 at BetUS) did not figure to be a strong challenger at the outset of the season, but they scared some people early with a series of brilliant pitching performances. Things are getting much closer to normal for the Bucs, who are not getting much offense and can't beat teams in their own division (9-19 against Central rivals). Zach Duke has clearly exceeded expectations and could wind up the Pirates' representative in the All-Star Game, but the other starters are not enough to put this team into the race, and the trade of Nate McLouth, the team's home run and RBI leader, is further indication that this club is not really in it to win it.
The HOUSTON ASTROS (+10000 at BetUS) are, I think being severely undervalued at this number. In fact, they are worth a pop. Do not confuse this team with the Pirates; this club has two reliable starters in Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, and they also have the NL's leading hitter in Miguel Tejada, who has evidently recovered by all those steroid revelations. Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence aren't too bad either in the middle of the order; Lance Berkman will produce big before the season is out. Michael Bourn adds some speed at the top of the order (.295, 18 steals), and Ivan Rodriguez is there to mentor the pitchers. Mike Hampton is coming off his best start of the season. Perhaps a couple of moves in the starting rotation are in order. This team has won four in a row as of today, and they're just seven games back. 100/1? I'd be willing to take a chance.
