posted September 2, 2009 at 11:00 EST in MLB Betting Trends
MLB Betting Insider - Four World Series Longshots to Watch
by Charles Jay
In order to take a look at World Series longshots, we are first going to list the odds of the teams that have at least a ghost of a chance to be eligible to get to the World Series come October. Here they are:
To Win 2009 World Series
Atlanta Braves +4000
Boston Red Sox +600
Chicago Cubs +3000
Chicago White Sox +2500
Colorado Rockies +1800
Detroit Tigers +2000
Florida Marlins +3000
Houston Astros +12500
Los Angeles Angels +750
Los Angeles Dodgers +600
Milwaukee Brewers +15000
Minnesota Twins +10000
New York Yankees +230
Philadelphia Phillies +550
Seattle Mariners +12500
St Louis Cardinals +900
Tampa Bay Rays +3000
Texas Rangers +2200
San Francisco Giants +2500
Out of this group, I can see four teams at odds of 20/1 or better who could conceivably pull off some upsets on the way to a possible World Series berth. Of course, they'd have to get to the World Series first.
One of them is the DETROIT TIGERS (+2000 at BetUS), who should win their division while the Boston Red Sox, a +600 World Series pick, have to get the wild card. The Tigers have a 3.5-game lead in the AL Central, while the Red Sox are only three games up on the Texas Rangers in the wild card race. All of these teams are going to be up-and-down during any given stretch, but the Tigers, who possess a 41-20 record at Comerica Park, have a chance to extend any series, even if they don't have the home field advantage.
What's important to remember about Detroit is that the Tigers have something that is required to go into a short series, which is a solid three-man rotation that could expand itself to four starters. Edwin Jackson (2.96 ERA) and Justin Verlander (14 wins, 3.38) have been two of the American League's best starting pitchers all season long. Jarrod Washburn has been relatively ineffective since he came over from Seattle in a trade, but with the Mariners he had a 2.64 ERA and was among the AL leaders in a number of categories. Rick Porcello, the rookie who got hot in May and early June, seems to have gotten a second wind. Now, if only this team could generate a little better on-base percentage.....
I feel it's almost my responsibility to continue to tout the TAMPA BAY RAYS (+3000 at BetUS), since from the beginning of the season I thought they were going to be a playoff team. The difference is that I thought the team the Rays would beat out would be the New York Yankees (+230 at BetUS), not the Red Sox. However, Boston has surely had its difficulties, not getting as much offense as it though it would and having to release Brad Penny and John Smoltz, two guys they thought would give their rotation a big boost.
People like Jason Bartlett (.344) and Ben Zobrist (.292) have come from nowhere to be prominent parts of the offense, and while Tampa Bay may not be getting the same kind of starting pitching they had last year, they look like they may have their top three, in Matt Garza, James Shields and Jeff Niemann. Scott Kazmir is the "wild card" in this mix, if you pardon the pun, because he's had all kinds of problems, but if he can continue to pitch the way he has in his last three starts, that makes this staff more interesting. David Price has been kind of a disappointment as a starter, and I suspect that if Tampa Bay makes the playoffs they will find a relief role that is similar to what he did last season. Any team that has surged to the World Series the year before can't be completely counted out.
It would really help the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (+2500 at BetUS) if they could get a fourth starter into the rotation, and would be even better if they had the services of Randy Johnson for the playoff run. The future Hall of Famer, who was able to show his dominant self at times this season, is sidelined with a slight tear in his rotator cuff but has recently begun throwing on flat ground. The Giants were 2.5 games behind the Colorado Rockies (+1800 at BetUS) at the beginning of Thursday's games, and they have been a formidable home team for sure (41-20).
The starting rotation could be very hard to deal with should San Francisco get to the playoffs. Barry Zito has dropped his ERA almost a full run over his last eight starts, and he is starting to redeem himself for what has thus far been a disastrous stay on the other side of the Bay. He joins twin Cy Young candidates Tim Lincecum (12-4, 2.43) and Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39) in what could be a tough "Big Three" for any team to face.
I believe the ATLANTA BRAVES (+4000 at BetUS), who are just five games back in the wild card race, are probably a little better equipped than the Florida Marlins (+3000 at BetUS) to advance in the playoffs if they got in. Atlanta has a 32-30 record on the road this season, which is not a bad thing for a team that would probably have to travel if they get into the post-season. The team has gotten an infusion of some offense, with the acquisition of Adam LaRoche, who hit .385 in his first 22 games, and Garret Anderson, who signed a minor league contract at the outset, who is hitting .285. Nate McLouth has admittedly been a disappointment.
On the mound, Atlanta is far from airtight, but you'd have a hard time finding too many better duos than Jair Jurrjens (2.91 ERA) and Javier Vazquez (3.14), unless you went to San Francisco. The emergence of phenom Tommy Hanson (9-2, 3.12 ERA) could be very meaningful, if he doesn't hit the rookie wall. Derek Lowe, who signed the big contract before the season, has had a rougher time of it than expected, but if you recall, he hasn't been that bad in post-season play. What could be the wild card is the return of Tim Hudson; if he can return to form, he could make the difference.
