posted July 18, 2008 at 13:25 in MLB Betting Trends
We didn’t even have to wait for the end of the All-Star break. The New York Yankees have already made their first move in the push toward baseballs postseason; MLB betting on the Yanks and the other World Series contenders is only going to get hotter from here.
The Yankees reportedly reached a tentative agreement with first baseman Richie Sexson on Thursday afternoon. Back in 2005, Sexson had a strong .910 OPS with 39 home runs in the first year of his four-year contract with the Seattle Mariners. He’s been in decline ever since, dropping off to .696 OPS this year before the Mariners released him last week. New York hopes that Sexson’s numbers will rebound in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, and the towering righty is still a beast against southpaws, posting a 1.046 OPS this year.
Sexson is expected to be in the lineup Saturday against Oakland; we’ll look at that sports wagering matchup as part of our latest MLB betting weekend preview.
Friday: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)
Arizona made a move of its own Thursday, getting first baseman Tony Clark back in the fold after a frustrating season (.681 OPS) in a reserve role with the San Diego Padres. Like Sexson, the Diamondbacks hope Clark will rebound after leaving Petco Park. The veteran switch-hitter had a .822 OPS for the Snakes last year and was a key part of their successful playoff run.
This year’s squad remains in first place in the National League West, but at 47-48 sit just a game in front of the Dodgers. Los Angeles will start Hiroki Kuroda (3.43 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), who has allowed three earned runs in three starts since coming off the disabled list earlier this month. The light-hitting Dodgers (.694 OPS) are only 8-9 in his 17 starts, giving up 2.48 units and driving the under to a 10-7 record.
The Snakes respond with Doug Davis (3.80 ERA, 1.48 WHIP). Again, Davis is not getting much help from his teammates, who have a middling .730 OPS and have cooled off to .700 OPS in July. Arizona is 5-7 in his 12 appearances with a deficit of 2.24 units; the under is 6-5.
Saturday: Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees (1:05 p.m. ET)
Provided the paperwork goes through, Sexson will don the pinstripes and face Oakland lefty Greg Smith. The rookie from LSU is one of the reasons the Athletics have stayed competitive in the American League West at 51-44. Smith has a 3.43 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP after 18 starts; however, the A’s have a very poor .699 OPS as a team. That leaves Oakland at 10-8 (+2.68 units) with Smith on the hill, taking the under to a highly bankable 13-3 against the MLB odds.
Smith’s arrival emboldened the A’s to trade Rich Harden to the Cubs for a package of young players. Matt Murton was originally sent to the minors, but started in left field during Oakland’s three-game set against the Angels. Murton went 1-for-12 with a walk and the A’s dropped two of three.
The Yankees are also coming off a series loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. Joba Chamberlain (2.62 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) lost one of those games despite throwing a quality start; he gets the call Saturday. The Yankees are still a profitable 5-3 (+0.58 units) in his eight starts with the under checking in at 4-2-2.
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Sunday: Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (6:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Red Sox are back in first place in the AL East at 57-40 after winning five of their last six games before the break. The AL West-leading Angels have the better record at 57-38, but Boston has the best run differential in the league at +99. The Angels have had luck on their side, outscoring opponents by 21 runs – that’s 44 fewer than Oakland.
The scrappy Halos have found a way to win both at home and on the road. Not so the Red Sox; they’re 36-11 at Fenway Park but only 21-29 away, losing 10.31 units in the process. Tim Wakefield (3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) has had the misfortune of pitching 11 of his 19 starts on the road; Boston is 3-6 in those nine starts and the under is 5-3-3.
Jered Weaver (4.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) responds for the Angels. They’re 9-10 overall with Weaver on the mound, dropping 2.98 units with the under at 11-8. But Weaver gets considerably more run support at home: 4.78 runs per game compared to 3.70 away.
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