posted March 25, 2008 at 15:56 in MLB Betting Trends

Starting Pitching:

Just a couple of years ago, the Houston Astros had one of the deepest starting rotations in the Major Leagues. Now they cling to Roy Oswalt as their lone certainty with a crew of rickety starters behind him.

Oswalt is a stud but there aren’t many familiar faces behind him. You might recognize the wildly inconsistent Wandy Rodriguez, who was 6-3 with a 2.94 ERA at home but was 3-10 with a 6.37 ERA on the road last year. You might recognize Brandon Backe, the converted infielder who was the Astros fourth starter when they made a run to the National League Championship series a couple of years ago. He missed most of last season battling injuries but returns to the Astros top three. Who knows if he is capable of handling a full workload this season?

Shawn Chacon, who was added in late February, fills the fourth spot while Woody Williams/Chris Sampson/Jack Cassel will pitch every fifth day.

Expect this rotation to get batted around like a piñata at a pre-schooler’s party. Aside from when Rodriguez pitches at home, the Astros have nothing beyond Oswalt.

Relief Pitching:

With a shoddy rotation, the Astros bullpen is going to get a lot of work. Since last year’s group was completely scratched, it is worth questioning whether this group can even handle a moderate workload.

The fiery Jose Valverde improves the closer’s role but he had been erratic prior to last year. If Doug Brocail is the setup man throughout the season, expect to see Valverde in the eighth inning frequently.

Geoff Geary and Oscar Villarreal are decent arms who can get you to the eighth inning but neither have extensive setup experience.

Like the rotation, there is one solid arm in the bullpen and not much after that.

Hitting:

If the Astros are going to compete in 2008, it is going to be because of hitting.

Expect Lance Berkman to perform like he did in the second half of last season and possibly even better. He finally has protection around him in the lineup and has speed at the top of the order in front of him.

Michael Bourn and Kaz Matsui were acquired and both provide a lot of speed that the Astros were lacking. With Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada and Hunter Pence behind them, expect the Astros to churn out a ton of runs.

J.R. Towles is a decent prospect at the bottom of the order and was on fire at the end of last season. He’s tabbed to be the catcher of the future.

The Astros also have a pretty good bench with Darin Erstad, Mark Loretta, Brad Ausmus and Geoff Blum, which indicates that they’ll be able to handle short term injuries much better than most teams.

Regular Season Wins: 74.5

Houston won 73 games last year and should be able to top that mark in the weak National League Central.

While they don’t have much pitching this year, they didn’t have much last year either. But their batting lineup has significantly improved.

Berkman is healthy while the additions of Bourn, Matsui and Tejada should make this is a fierce lineup. If Towles develops, opposing pitchers won’t get a break in the order from one to eight.

Valverde also upgrades their closing, even if it is at the back of a shaky bullpen.

With better hitting and a closer, the Astros are a good bet to top 74.5 wins.

Free Pick: Over 74.5 wins

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