posted April 25, 2008 at 13:28 in MLB Betting Trends

BetUS MLB baseball betting odds: Boston -120, Tampa Bay - Even, Total 10 (Under -120, Over - Even)

The Boston Red Sox (15-9), the American League East division leaders, will take a trip south on Friday when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays (11-11) in AL action that will commence at 7:10 PM ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. The Rays return there after sweeping a three-game series against Toronto at the Disney Sports Complex in Orlando.

Right-handed knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (2-0, 3.96 ERA) gets the starting assignment for the Red Sox, while the Rays go with off-season acquisition Matt Garza (0-0, 9.00 ERA).

At BetUS Sportsbook, Boston is listed as a -120 favorite (Tampa Bay is even), with a total of 10 runs (the Under is -120, the Over is even money)

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)

* BOS has won 10 of its last 13 games

* BOS has played four of its last five games OVER the total

* BOS has played five of its last six road games OVER the total

* TB has won four of its last five games

* TB has played four of its last five games UNDER the total

* TB has won four of its last five home games

* TB has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD MLB betting trends:

* BOS has won four of the last five meetings

* BOS has won four of the last six meetings as the road team

* Three of the last five meetings have gone OVER the total

Tim Wakefield has faced 93 batters this year, and given up just four extra base hits. Three of them were home runs, which I guess were knuckleballs that didn't knuckle. Overall, teams are slugging .355 against him, which is a great improvement over his performance in any of the previous five seasons.

Last year he was hot and cold against Tampa Bay, most recently cold. After three starts against the Rays where he gave up just one total earned run in 21 innings, he was reached for 11 earned runs and 17 hits in just eight innings in the last two. So which Wakefield will show up on Friday, or more specifically, which Tampa Bay team?

Well, it's a Tampa Bay team that has just brought Matt Garza back off the disabled list for "radial nerve irritation" in his throwing arm. Garza, who was acquired from Minnesota in the off-season amidst high hopes, did not get a lot of time to settle into the rotation, making just two starts. And in the last one, April 8 against Seattle, he was roughed up for six hits and three runs in 2-2/3 innings.

Overall, Wakefield has been very difficult for the Rays to face, as his career record against Tampa Bay is 19-3 with a 3.12 ERA. At Tropicana Field, he is 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA. That's some pretty good history, so we'll excuse the two blowups last year, since he's not in bad form right now. If we assume that the Red Sox have more patient hitters than the Rays do, that means Garza will be the more likely guy to make the critical series of mistakes.

We're not unhappy about laying -120 in the BetUS Major League MLB betting odds with the defending world champs, who have a guy on the hill who was won nine of ten decisions int his ballpark. We'll do just that with the Red Sox.

JAY'S PLAY: BOSTON (-120)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)