MLB Betting Tips - Pitchers to Fade in July

Anyone can find a great arm to bet on, but it’s just as effective to find one to fade. Teams are starting to fall out of the playoff race and will inevitably be sellers at the deadline, which could make matters a lot better or a lot worse for a lot of names. Here’s BetUS’s list of pitchers you should be fading away when MLB betting on over the next month…

Zach Duke, Pittsburgh Pirates (0-4 in July 2008): Last July, Duke was arguably the worst pitcher in baseball, as he went 0-4 with a 9.51 ERA. Yes, he’s been the best pitcher for Pittsburgh this season, but with that distinction comes some skewed lines. The rest of the team around Duke is awful, as the bullpen is miserable and the lineup is constantly changing thanks to a lot of trades that have messed up the chemistry of the team. July is the southpaw’s worst month of his career, as he is only 5-6 with a career-worst 5.52 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .317 against him, and his WHIP is a lofty 1.65 for his career. It all adds up to a potentially disastrous month for the young lefty. Duke won’t pitch as poorly as he did last July, but he knows that if he allows two runs in seven innings, there’s a decent chance that he’s getting a loss no matter who the opposition is.

Javier Vazquez, Atlanta Braves (0-3 in July 2008): There isn’t a pitcher in baseball that has been as unlucky as Vazquez. Since coming over to the Braves via free agency in the offseason, he has done everything that manager Bobby Cox could ask of him. He has thrown 112.0 innings, has a 3.05 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, opposing batters are only hitting .232 against him, and his strikeout ratios are off the charts (10.45 K/9 and 5.65 K/BB). The only thing that just isn’t there for Vazquez is his record. The righty is only 5-7, and it’s largely because he has just gotten no help whatsoever. Before scoring five runs in his last start, Atlanta had only scored ten runs in his previous seven outings. Now we head into a month that is historically a disaster for the righty, as he went 0-3 last July with a 5.65 ERA for the White Sox.

Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals (1-3 in July 2008): The biggest problem with fading Hochevar is that he is basically always the underdog, and sometimes the chalk necessary to lie against him is astronomical. However, his numbers warrant the fade, particularly considering the lineup that he has to work with, which is one of the worst in baseball. The young righty has improved his ERA greatly since the start of June, but there are still a ton of concerns. His K/9 ratio is bordering on miserable, as it is sub-4.00 and opposing batters are eventually going to start hitting him for better than his .224 BAA he had through the month of June. If last July is any indicator, this is the month that things should get back to normal for Hochevar, as he had a 7.67 ERA and a .291 BAA in five starts.