Fading Marlins to Stay In NL East Race against Braves

Currently six games behind the NL East division-leading Philadelphia Phillies, the Florida Marlins, (67-65 SU, 75-57 RL, 71-53-8 O/U) have alternated wins and losses in each of their last five contests.

While Tuesday night’s 10-9 loss to the Atlanta Braves, (58-74 SU, 64-68 RL, 55-73-4 O/U) made my prediction in the BetUS Locker Room yesterday look prophetic, the Marlins are losers of four of their last seven games overall in the BetUS Sportsbook.

Florida will look to keep their fading postseason hopes alive by handing the ball to young right-hander Josh Johnson (3-0, 3.51) and would appear to stand an excellent chance of winning as they have gone 6-2 in Johnson’s starts this season, though they have dropped each of the last two.

On Thursday Johnson limited the San Francisco Giants to three runs on nine hits in six innings of Friday’s 4-3 loss, but has posted a respectable 2-1 record with a 2.78 ERA in six career starts against the Braves.

Atlanta, who scored four times in the ninth inning off Marlins closer Kevin Gregg to win Tuesday night’s contest, will counter with veteran lefty, Mike Hampton (2-1, 6.47 ERA), who looks to build on another strong outing in his last start after missing all of 2006 and 2007 with elbow injuries.

Hampton limited the New York Mets to three runs over six innings in Thursday’s 5-4 loss to the Atlanta Braves.

"The body felt pretty good tonight," Hampton told the Braves' official Web site. "I made some petty good pitches. My fastball's kind of starting to get there, the velocity's starting to come back a little bit. I felt pretty comfortable."

Here is a look at tonight’s key online sports wagering trends followed by my analysis and MLB online betting Free Picks.

The Marlins are 4-0 in Johnson’s last four starts vs. National League East.

The Marlins are 4-1 in Johnson’s last five road starts.

The Braves are 14-2 in Hampton’s last 16 home starts.

The Braves are 5-1 in Hampton’s last six home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

The Over is 9-1 in Johnson’s last ten starts vs. National League East.

The Over is 7-0-1 in Hampton’s last eight home starts.

Analysis: While Atlanta’s Mike Hampton has looked very good in his last couple of outings and is undoubtedly one of the feel-good stories of the year in all of baseball this season after his nearly, miraculous return from myriad career-threatening injuries, I like the Florida Marlins to narrowly pull out a victory in this matchup while getting an excellent performance from rookie Josh Johnson. It may not be pretty, but I say take the feisty and resilient Florida Marlins to eke out a close victory in this matchup.

MLB Free Picks: Marlins 5 Braves 4

Florida Marlins -1½ +135

Josh Johnson –R -120

Atlanta Braves + 1½ -155

Mike Hampton –L Ev

Over 9½ -110

Under 9½ -110