posted March 7, 2006 at 10:35 EST in MLB Betting Trends

Morneau has to be big

I am about to pop the rubber band off my baseball bankroll for 2006. I mentioned before I’ll go over in games against Greg Maddux (in good weather) early on and use my “dogs only” system, but I have one more team I’ll be wagering on.

In the April games, it’s the Twins. What I’m going to do is bet the over in all their home games except the games that are started by Johan Santana or rookie Francisco Liriano.

Last year, the Twins were pitiful. They could not score. They were 13th in the AL in batting, total bases, and slugging percentage.

They were 14th in runs scored and RBIs. Most disturbing, they were 12th in homers and play in a bandbox.

OK, so why the over? I think the addition of Luis Castillo (2b), Tony Batista (3b) and veteran Rondell White (of) will do several things to help. White and Batista can go long, especially in the Homer Dome. Neither is an A player, but they are well suited for the Dome.

The top of the Twins lineup is as good as any; Shannon Stewart, Castillo, and Joe Mauer will bat 1,2,3. Then they have Justin Morneau, (22HR) the return of Torii Hunter. Then you add Batista, White, and the speed of Lew Ford (30 2b, 13 SB) and they should score in the dome.

We all know about Santana, but I have been warned by a friend of mine who loves minor league baseball to watch out for the rookie lefty Francisco Liriano. He said this kid is a junior Santana; he has velocity and 3 very good pitches. He has speed (90+MPH), a slider and an 82MPH changeup. That’s why I’ll pass on the over when either of them is on the hill.

The rest of the Twins staff is old and ineffective. Kyle Lohse (4.18 ERA) andBrad Radke (4.01 ERA) have seen better days andCarlos Silva gave up 212 hits in 188 innings last year, so I will go over the total when they start in the Dome.

Twins Facts

• Minnesota had the lowest batting average (.242) and on-base percentage (.300) in MLB with the bases empty in 2005.
• The Twins hit .283 with runners on in ’05, but still finished last in runs scored in the AL.
• The Twins got 27 homer runs, 196 runs scored, and 157 RBIs from the second base, third base and shortstop positions last year, again the worst in the AL.
• Minnesota's 83 wins totalin ’05 was their lowest since 2001.

Former Twins Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett passed away on Monday. He reminded me of Brooklyn Dodger great Roy Campanella.They were both small in stature and a bit chunky, but one thing I will always remember about them is that they always had a smile on their faces. Kirby we will miss you, thanks for the memories.

Pete Cataldo can be heard every Wednesday on BetUSradio.com at 3pm EST. You can email him c/o jrclemente@hotmail.com.