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posted August 21, 2008 at 17:00 in MLB Betting Trends

Baker, Surging Twins Face Stellar Lackey, Angels

by BetUS Staff

BetUS MLB Betting Odds: L.A. Angels -165, Minnesota +145; Total 8

Kicking off what is a very meaningful American League series, the Minnesota Twins (72-54) and the Los Angeles Angels (77-48) will do battle on Thursday night beginning at 10:05 PM ET at Angel Stadium (natural turf) in Anaheim.

Right-handers are in action, as Scott Baker of the Twins (7-3, 3.91 ERA) meets up with John Lackey (10-2, 3.22 ERA) of the Angels.

At BetUS online sportsbook, Los Angeles is listed as a -165 favorite (Minnesota is +145), with a total of eight runs (the Under is -120, while the Over is even money).

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* MINN has won six of its last seven games

* MINN has played five of its last six road games OVER the total

* LA has lost five of its last seven games

* LA has won five of its last six home games

* LA has played five of its last six home games OVER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

* LA has won seven of the last eight meetings

* Five of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total

* LA has won five of the last six meetings as the home team

* Six of the last nine meetings in Anaheim have gone UNDER the total

Both of these teams won their ballgames on Wednesday. The Angels held off the Tampa Bay Rays by the score of 5-4 in Anaheim and managed to avoid being swept by the AL East leaders (incidentally, Francisco Rodriguez got his 48th save). And the Twins beat the A's 3-1 behind a nice pitching performance from Francisco Liriano, who won his fourth straight decision. So here is where they stand: the Angels are way out in front in the American League West, 15.5 games ahead of the Texas Rangers, including 17 in the loss column. The Twins are in a tight race in the AL Central, trailing the Chicago White Sox by only a game. They are a sizzling 46-23 at home, but when venturing away from the Metrodome, have compiled only a 26-31 mark. In the wild card race, Minnesota is a half-game behind Boston.

Scott Baker is one of those pitchers who has been holding the fort down for the Twins, and he has been consistent for the most part. In his last outing, he was adequate, going 5-1/3 innings against the Mariners and allowing four runs on eight hits. In twenty starts, he has yielded more than three runs on five occasions. He's had tough luck with the Angels; in his last three outings against them (which go back to 2006), he has given up 17 earned runs in 15-2/3 innings. Baker's last five starts have all gone over the total.

Lately, John Lackey has not matched the brilliance he displayed at the seasons outset, when he came off the disabled list and limited teams to two runs or less in eight of his first nine starts. In his last eight outings, however, he has just a 5.57 ERA. he's allowed three runs in each of his last two starts, the latest a six-inning stint against Cleveland that resulted in a 4-3 Angels win. Los Angeles has won 12 of his last 14 starts.

I'm not particularly interested in the price on the favorite here, but I am not enamored with Baker either, especially with his inability to deal with this Angels team, for whatever reason. The total appeals to me, however. And with Lackey doing a Jekyll-and-Hyde thing (at least to a certain degree) over the last half of his season, I can see some runs scored. We'll grab the OVER here at eight runs and even money in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 8 (Even)

(Charles Jay of www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)

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