posted March 24, 2008 at 17:37 in MLB Betting Trends

After the New York Mets collapsed down the stretch of last season (partially because of pitching) and missed the playoffs, the front office wanted to make a splash in the offseason. Enter Johan Santana, arguably one of the best pitchers in the game.

For a perennial pretender, Santana made a name for himself as one of the premier pitchers of this generation and immediately anchors the top of the rotation in New York.

Behind him will be a healthy Pedro Martinez, who will face all sorts of durability questions at the age of 36. How many innings can he pitch this year? Will he be limited to six quality innings and pulled?

Behind Santana and Martinez are two pitchers who must grow up. John Maine and Oliver Martinez improved significantly last year, winning 15 games but many people wonder if they will be consistent enough to be relied upon in the back end of the rotation.

Orlando Hernandez might fill out the fifth spot but there are trepidations surrounding his age as well.

If you are an optimist, Santana will win 20 games, Martinez and Hernandez will contribute quality starts while Perez and Maine continue to grow.

If you are a pessimist, Santana will win 20 games, Martinez and Hernandez will be limited by injuries and age, and Perez and Maine will stunt at a level of inconsistency.

Relief Pitching:

Speaking of age, it’s not like Billy Wagner is getting any younger. Lost in the Mets historical collapse last season was the fact that his ERA increase for a third consecutive season.

If he keeps it together, the Mets bullpen will be fine but one can’t help but wonder if age will catch up with him as well (he will be 37 this season).

Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano will work as the main setup duo and both are reliable.

Duaner Sanchez, who was one of the better arms for the Mets last season, is recovering from multiple shoulder surgeries over the past two seasons and if he can return at full health, would share much of the workload with Heilman and Feliciano.

Other arms like Scott Schoeneweis and Jorge Sosa can chew up some innings when needed.

Hitting:

Jose Reyes is one of the best players in the game of baseball, which is why his second half slump was so surprising. He took responsibility for it and has been focused in the offseason to avoid another drought.

It became pretty clear in the second half of the season that as Reyes goes, so do the Mets lineup – for the most part.

He’s wreaks havoc on the base paths and distracts pitchers from pitching, which works to the benefit of David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado, who follow Reyes in the order.

After Paul Lo Duca flopped at the top of the order, the addition of Luis Castillo proved to a shrewd one.

With him and Reyes at the top, the Mets should have a runner on base a good chunk of the time before the meat of the order steps up.

Beltran dealt with knee problems last year but should be healthy again while Wright is a monster.

But the bottom of the order raises some concern. Delgado and Moises Alou used to be good but both are clearly on the decline. Delgado used to be money for 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s, but know he is an injury concern. If both can be productive all season long, the Mets will be tough to beat.

Regular Season Wins: 93.5

There are too many question marks for me to be comfortable with laying such a high number with the New York Mets.

On paper, one might think that they won 88 games last year, then added Santana in the offseason, so why wouldn’t they win six more games?

But this roster is very old in some areas – and not just veteran. Martinez, Hernandez, Delgado, Alou and Wagner are all over the hill but hold key roster spots. If Wagner collapses, the Mets won’t 94 games. If Martinez can’t pitch behind Santana, the Mets won’t 94 games. And if Delgado or Alou can’t help with production behind the big bats, the Mets won’t win 94 games.

Everything could go right, but there are too many ‘ifs’ for me to be comfortable predicting 94 wins.

MLB Free Picks: Under 93.5 wins

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