posted July 2, 2009 at 15:57 EST in MLB Articles
Ranking the World Series Contenders
by Charles Jay
It's almost the midway point of the season, and time to assess the chances of some of the leading World Series contenders. Who can win it all and who can't? Well, my answer to the second part of that question is, obviously no one in the NL Central. I just can't see it happening, even though one of them will get to the playoffs. I have a hard time seeing the Brewers, Cubs, Reds or Cardinals as anything resembling a complete team at this time.
Let's do some ranking!
Here are the top ten as they appear on the futures board at BetUS Sportsbook (http://www.betus.com/sportsbook/mlb-baseball_futures-world_series_2009.aspx):
Boston Red Sox +400
New York Yankees +400 Los Angeles Dodgers +500 Philadelphia Phillies +1000 New York Mets +1200 Chicago Cubs +1200 Detroit Tigers +1200 Los Angeles Angels +1400 St. Louis Cardinals +1600 Tampa Bay Rays +1800Here are MY top ten:
(1) BOSTON RED SOX (+400 at BetUS) -- My assessment of the Red Sox is a simple one: they have, hands down, the best and deepest bullpen in all of baseball, which means no team gets a break, ever. And when the playoffs come around (which I have no doubt they'll make), that bullpen gets even deeper because they go with three starters and might be able to put guys like John Smoltz and Brad Penny (both of whom have started an All-Star Game) into that pen. Josh Beckett has allowed no runs in five of his last seven starts. Jon Lester is hot. This team is, to me, head and shoulders above the rest. Hey - Tim Wakefield could win 20 games. You're telling me this isn't going to be a big year?
(2) LOS ANGELES DODGERS (+1400 at BetUS) -- The Dodgers have built a fortress at Chavez Ravine, where they have won 27 of their 39 home games as of Tuesday. They're also 27-10 in their own division, which is strong. Manny Ramirez is on his way back, there are very few pitchers having a year like reliever Jonathan Broxton (6-0, 18 saves, 2.21 ERA) and the rotation has held up pretty well. If Hiroki Kuroda and Eric Milton can continue contributing, that's obviously a big boon. One thing you is that barring massive swoon, this team is going to the playoffs.
(3) DETROIT TIGERS (+1200 at BetUS) -- Out of the mediocrity in the AL Central, Detroit is the team that has taken some degree of control. Edwin Jackson (6-4, 2.49 ERA) is such a huge addition to this pitching staff. When you put him together with Justin Verlander and rookie Rick Porcello, they’ve got a top three who could go into any playoff series and be competitive.
(4) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (+1000 at BetUS) -- Raul Ibanez is coming back, and when he went to the disabled list he was building a case for MVP candidacy (22 HR, 59 RBI, .312). The Phillies' starters still kind of worry me, although it looks like Joe Blanton (starting Tuesday) had reached some level of relative consistency. Brad Lidge is back from the DL too, but he's got to prove he can regain his form. What's kind of attractive about Philadelphia is that it wins games on the road (26-12) and they have done it before. Now if they can only win at home.
(5) LOS ANGELES ANGELS (+1400 at BetUS) -- The Angels have gotten hot recently, which may be proof that the cream rises to the top. There should be enough starting pitchers, and if there wasn't, they're getting Ervin Santana back from the DL and discovered a new guy in Sean O'Sullivan (2-0, 3.00 ERA) while he was gone. Brian Fuentes looks like he's settling down; he's got 22 saves and has gone ten straight appearances without allowing an earned run.
(6) TAMPA BAY RAYS (+1800 at BetUS) -- I had faith in this team even as it was struggling to get out of the gate. The Rays are humming now, with six straight wins and 14 out of 18. There is plenty of offense to go around at the moment, and I know that was the concern of management in the off-season. Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton have 69 steals between them. Jeff Niemann has developed well in his first full season. David Price will be there till the end. If Scott Kazmir, who came back nicely against Florida, proves to be a dependable member of the rotation, look out.
(7) COLORADO ROCKIES (+6000 at BetUS) -- I don't think the Rockies are going to catch the Dodgers in the NL West, and they are still behind San Francisco, but they are the team with momentum. Jim Tracy took over, and the team is now on a run where it has won 20 out of 24 games. You know they can get red hot from their surge two years ago, and you also know they can get to the Series from the wild card spot. I just don't think you can keep them off this list.
(8) NEW YORK YANKEES (+400 at BetUS) -- Hey listen - right now the Yankees are still in the hunt in the American League East, and you know that they have the talent to get it done. It looks like they're going to have seven or eight guys with 20 home runs, and I'm sure it's been nice for them to see A.J. Burnett (one earned run allowed in last 20-1/3 innings) pitching well. I don't really worry too much about C.C. Sabathia, or Joba Chamberlain for that matter. But this just appears to be a team that will find a way to screw it up, and even if they don't, they can't beat Boston. Plus, that bullpen, outside of Mariano, is shaky.
(9) NEW YORK METS (+1200 at BetUS) -- The Mets are at a low point right now, falling below .500, and they can't score runs. Yet I have to list them ahead of the likes of San Francisco, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Florida, Toronto, Minnesota, etc. because they have upside. When you see the players who are injured - Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, John Maine, Oliver Perez, JJ Putz - you would expect that the Mets would fall off, but they're all going to be back at some point. If they can hang in until then, they can make it interesting.
(10) TEXAS RANGERS (+2500 at BetUS) -- The Rangers have been a real mystery because they can't hit the ball too well right now. What they've been getting is some decent pitching, especially from Kevin Millwood. Maybe they need a catalyst. They can possibly get that from two different places - highly-touted prospect Julio Borbon, who's just been brought up from the minors, and/or Josh Hamilton, who is currently doing a rehab stint at Triple-A Oklahoma City. Help for the staff may be on its way in the person of El Duque Hernandez, who's prepping in the minors, and there is still at least a little interest in Pedro Martinez (who's too pricey at the moment) and Ben Sheets (who is still iffy for '09).
Keep an eye on the trade market (as if we really have to tell you). Somebody could tip the scales in their favor with a deal by July 31.
Still, they'd have to do a helluva deal to beat Boston.
