posted July 9, 2009 at 15:23 EST in MLB Articles
Moving the Doc - Roy Halladay Trade Fiasco
by Charles Jay
THE "HALLADAY FACTOR" MAY BE THIS YEAR'S GAME-CHANGER
As we write this, Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays (+3500 to win the AL East at BetUS) is taking his regular turn against the Tampa Bay Rays (+650 at BetUS for the AL East title). Whether or not it is his last start for the Jays may depend on how quickly Toronto management can act.
The Blue Jays, who held the American League East lead for a while, even after sustaining injuries in the starting rotation, have recently begun to fade. They went into Thursday's action at the .500 mark, and they are well off the pace that is now set by the Boston Red Sox, as well as eight games out of the wild card race. The pitching problems have continued, and there have been no less than twelve different hurlers who have taken the mound for a start.
In what is probably their way of giving up on the season, the Blue Jays first released reliever BJ Ryan and now want to get something for their pitching ace, who himself has done a stint on the disabled list, and are willing to listen to all offers. He will undoubtedly command plenty in return. Halladay went into the start against the Rays with a 10-2 record and 2.79 ERA, and his body of work may put him on track for eventual induction into Cooperstown. His 141-68 career record is good for a .675 winning percentage, which places him ninth all-time. He has a Cy Young Award and is headed to his sixth All-Star Game.
The question at this point might be: will he be wearing a different uniform for the Mid-Summer Classic in St. Louis?
Understandably, there is tremendous interest, because the addition of Halladay to a rotation might just mean a pennant. Respected columnist Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News wrote, "Despite the $15.75 million his Blue Jays contract calls for next season - the final year on his current deal - this year's CC Sabathia could be the best pitcher on the block since Tom Seaver forced his trade from the Mets to the Reds at the 1977 deadline."
Let's take a look at what the other teams are saying, and what is being said about them:
First of all, let's look at the Blue Jays themselves, and the strong rumor that they may be insisting that any team looking for Halladay must also be willing to take Vernon Wells in the deal. Wells hit .300 last year but is at .264 now, and Toronto owes him more than $100 million in contract guarantees over the next five years. They want out of that deal, and in exchange they want talent "that makes you sit up and take notice," according to GM J.P. Ricciardi.
As if the price tag for Halladay wasn't enough, the inclusion of Wells in any deal would almost certainly preclude all but the big-wallet teams from taking the plunge. The New York Yankees (+125 to win the AL East at BetUS), who are engaged in a battle with the Boston Red Sox (-125 favorites in the AL East at BetUS), are usually willing to talk, and Halladay would actually fill a spot in the rotation where they need someone to pick up the slack, but there would appear to be no plausible reason they'd be interested in Wells.
The Philadelphia Phillies (Even money to win the NL East at BetUS) have to be thinking about adding a pitcher, because they just don't have enough strong arms to fill out the rotation, and they can't enough build up any margin in this division, despite the collapse of the New York Mets (+175 to win the NL East at BetUS). The feeling is that the Phillies may have enough top-shelf prospects to package in a trade, and they could offer some quantity. Pitcher Kyle Drabek is someone the Blue Jays would almost certainly want, but the Phillies may not be willing to part with him. J.A. Happ, the rookie pitcher who Toronto scouts have been following lately, may be a different story. This is what GM Ruben Amaro Jr. had to say: "We’ll try to be aggressive with the right deal. At the same time, we have to be prudent about what some of these moves might impact our future, too.” Actually, that really doesn't mean anything.
According to writer Joe Strauss, a source from within the St. Louis Cardinals (+200 to win the NL Central at BetUS) organization said, "Give Ricciardi all our minor-league rosters and let him circle any 5 names." The Red Sox would appear to have enough pitching depth that they really didn't need Halladay. Then again, the Red Sox also have enough pitching depth to where they could structure a very attractive trade deal to get him. Josh Beckett would welcome Halladay to the rotation. “I think that would be great,” he said “Obviously if you can add something like that it’s a big deal. I can imagine it. I don’t know if it’s going to happen or not. We’ll see.” Actually, it is on offense that Boston really needs to most help, and the aforementioned Wells isn't the answer (Maybe Scott Rolen, who they could get on the cheap?).
The Mets could really use an arm like Halladay's, but the minor league system is relatively thin, and it's almost certain they would not have enough people to make the deal attractive for Toronto. And owner Fred Wilpon is shy about opening his wallet after he was robbed blind by Bernie Madoff (to the tune of up to $300 million). Evidence indicates Wilpon's failed business dealings with Madoff have had their effect on the baseball team.
The Milwaukee Brewers (+250 to win the NL Central at BetUS) intend to put themselves firmly in the running, according to GM Doug Melvin, who made the deal to bring Sabathia to the Brew Crew last year. The Chicago White Sox (+350 to win the AL Central at BetUS) tried to deal for Jake Peavy earlier in the season, but manager Ozzie Guillen doesn't see Halladay as a possibility, maintaining that the reversal in Jose Contreras' fortunes is like making a big trade and getting a pitcher.
The Texas Rangers (+150 to win the AL West at BetUS) are a team that needs immediate help in the pitching staff, and could be the right place for Ricciardi to deal with because of the fact that they have a deep farm system with prospects that Toronto could be interested in. Texas had been interested in Ben Sheets during the off-season and briefly had some interest in Pedro Martinez. However, owner Tom Hicks had had woeful financial problems, and that could figure prominently into any possible deals. According to GM Ian Daniels, "At the end of the day we will continue to try to make the team better. If there's something there, we'll move on it."
Futures bettors can expect the winner of this "sweepstakes" to be playing well into October.
