AL East Teams Battle for AL Pennant

The Boston Red Sox finished two games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East during the regular season, but those doing any MLB betting this weekend know that slate has now been wiped clean. The BoSox and upstart Rays will battle for the American League pennant over the next two weeks, starting in Tampa Bay on Friday.

If you insist on going over some trends, however, you can note that Boston and Tampa Bay played six times in the month of September – three times at each ballpark. The Rays won two of the three games in Boston, and two of the three games in their own stadium. Prior to that stretch the home team had gone 12-0 in BoSox/Rays matchups.

Here’s a look at the projected pitching matchups for the first four games of the ALCS …

Game 1 (Friday) – Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. James Shields

Game 2 (Saturday) – Josh Beckett vs. Scott Kazmir

Game 3 (Monday) – Jon Lester vs. Matt Garza

Game 4 (Tuesday) – Tim Wakefield vs. Andy Sonnanstine

Boston’s top pitcher so far during the playoffs has been Lester, who allowed just one unearned run over 14 innings in two starts against the Angels during the ALDS. Dice-K gave up three earned runs over five innings in his start against L.A., while Beckett allowed four earned runs over five innings. Wakefield has yet to pitch during the playoffs.

Shields, Kazmir, and Sonnanstine all picked up wins in Tampa Bay’s ALDS against the White Sox, posting ERAs of 4.26, 3.38, and 3.18, respectively. Garza was tagged with a loss in that series, surrendering five earned runs on seven hits over six innings pitched.

So who do the oddsmakers like in this seven-game series? Well, the Rays might have home-field advantage, but the Red Sox enter the series as the -140 favorites. Tampa Bay is then pegged at +110 to get to the World Series for the first time in team history.

The most likely series scenario? The BetUS Sportsbook oddsmakers have it as a tie between ‘Red Sox in six’ and ‘Rays in seven’ – both of those props are at +400. A five-game win for Boston is then at +450, with ‘Red Sox in seven’ and ‘Rays in six’ both at +500. Bigger underdogs are ‘Rays in five’ (+750), ‘Red Sox in four’ (+1000), and ‘Rays in four’ (+1600).

Finally, if you think Lester has one or two more gems in him you can get +1200 odds on him being named the ALCS MVP. Fellow BoSox pitchers Matsuzaka and Beckett are at +1200 and +1600 odds, respectively, to win that award, with closer Jon Papelbon at +900. Papelbon pitched three times during the ALDS, with one save and an 0.00 ERA.

Red Sox hitters and their MVP odds: David Ortiz (+550), Dustin Pedroia (+650), Kevin Youkilis (+700), Jason Bay (+750), Jacoby Ellsbury (+1200), J.D. Drew (+1600), and Jed Lowrie (+1800). Bay had two home runs, five RBI, and a .412 average in the ALDS.

For the Rays, Shields is at +1500 to win the ALCS MVP, with Kazmir at +1600, and reliever Grant Balfour at +1600. The MVP odds for Tampa’s hitters: Evan Longoria (+650), B.J. Upton (+1000), Carlos Pena (+1000), Akinori Iwamura (+1200), Carl Crawford (+1500), Dioner Navarro (+1500), and Cliff Floyd (+1800). Upton led the way with three home runs, four RBI, and five runs scored for Tampa Bay during their ALDS.

Check the BetUS MLB odds section for all of the latest lines and prop bets for the ALCS.