posted March 29, 2009 at 13:25 EST in March Madness Free Picks
The Players of the Year - (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Oklahoma
by Charles Jay

Oklahoma Sooners (30-5 SU, 17-13 ATS) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (31-4 SU, 15-19 ATS)
Sunday, March 29
5:05 PM ET
BetUS NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds: NORTH CAROLINA -7, Total 165.5
Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* OKLA has won 18 of its last 22 games SU
* NC has won seven of its last eight games SU
* NC has covered four of its last 11 games
* NC has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
Against Gonzaga, North Carolina looked like that team everybody was afraid of at the start of the season. They took control early, led by 11 at halftime and never looked back. The starting lineup shot 57%, led by Tyler Hansbrough's 24 points. After a rather ho-hum effort against Radford in the tourney opener, North Carolina has shot 54% and 53% in back-to-back games. They're second in the country with 90.5 ppg.
Obviously one of the big keys for the Heels is the presence of Ty Lawson, who has battled the pain of a toe injury to post consecutive games of 23 and 19 points (17 in the first half against Gonzaga), hitting 64% from the field, with 15 assists against just ONE turnover in this tournament.
Once again, Blake Griffin could not be stopped. Griffin chalked up 30 points in the 84-71 romp against Syracuse, and has now averaged 30 points on 79% shooting in the NCAA Tournament. Griffin also has no less than eighteen offensive rebounds in three games. Hansbrough, who is three inches shorter and not known as a great defender, is going to have his hands full. He'll need some help inside to guard Griffin, and the Heels have veteran Deon Thompson and a couple of freshmen, Tyler Zeller and Ed Davis, who can help out along those lines, though it would be optimistic to think they can shut Griffin down.
Despite that win over Syracuse, however, we still have reservations about the inconsistency of Oklahoma's backcourt. Tony Crocker busted loose with 28 points last time out, but that followed a game where he was shut out. Willie Warren and Austin Johnson turned the ball over 11 times between them on Friday. The Sooners may have to achieve more balance than that.
North Carolina is the team with a better chance to get the fast break going. Even in the games they lost, it was tough to keep them off the board., If Oklahoma creeps close to being one-dimensional, there is a lot of danger for them here. Don't discount that free throws are a key factor, since Griffin is lacking in that area (59%) while Hansbrough is sensational (86%).
We're somewhat guarded about this, but we will lay the points with North Carolina, the seven-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA Sportsbook.
JAY'S PLAY: NORTH CAROLINA -7 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)



