Call toll free: 1 888 51 BETUS (23887)

Up to March Madness Free Picks

posted March 28, 2009 at 13:29 EST in March Madness Free Picks

The Elite 8 - (3) Missouri vs. UConn

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

Missouri Tigers (31-6 SU, 20-9-1 ATS) vs. Connecticut Huskies (30-4 SU, 16-14 ATS)

NCAA Tournament - West Regional Final (@ Glendale, AZ)

BetUS NCAA Odds: CONNECTICUT -5.5, Total 149

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* MIZZ has won and covered its last six games

* MIZZ has played four of its last six games UNDER the total

* CONN has won six of its last eight games SU

* CONN has covered its last three games

* CONN has playd three of its last four games OVER the total

Memphis certainly made it exciting, and it was admittedly a mental lapse on the part of Missouri, but Mike Anderson's team was simply awesome in disposing of last year's national runner-up in the regional semi-final. They led at one juncture by 24 points against a team that had won 27 games in a row coming into the contest. What was maybe most notable was the fact that Mizzou did it without getting monster offensive nights from either of its two talented forwards. Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll combined for just 32 points, while the big honors went to junior guard J.T. Tiller, normally more of a defensive specialist, who scored a season-high 23. Anderson, a disciple of former Arkansas coach Nolan Richardson, had his team create 24 minutes of "pure hell" for Memphis, and had to withstand a furious rally to secure the win, as Memphis under-achieved at the free throw line.

U-Conn had a 42-31 rebounding edge against Purdue on Thursday night, and used Hasheem Thabeet's intimidation factor (four blocked shots) to pull away in the second half for a 72-60 win. Purdue wound up trying too many threes and made just six of them. In fact, the Boilermakers were just 36% accurate overall.

Missouri is committed to throwing a lot of people into the fray, which has the potential of exploiting one U-Conn weakness. Remember that even before Jerome Dyson went down with an injury, the knock on the Huskies was that they were not a particularly deep team. They have an edge in size, as they will with almost anyone, but the Tigers have the capacity to turn up the volume enough to make Thabeet extend himself by jetting from end to end. This is not a three-point shooting team, or necessarily a power team, but rather, a club that plays well in mid-range. They take advantage of guards who do not make a lot of mistakes (Tiller and Zaire Taylor have three turnovers per game combined), and the varied talents of both Lyons and Carroll (14 assists with just two turnovers on the tourney).

There is no telling how much of a distraction the recent allegations about improprieties in U-Conn's recruiting practices will be, but it might be a bit of a rallying cry, as was Jim Calhoun's stay in the hospital that kept him out of the first game. Expect to see plenty of senior guard Craig Austrie, who has dished out 31 assists with just seven turnovers in his last eight games. Kemba Walker, the big recruit from New York, has 14 assist with two turnovers in the tourney. I guess the message is that it won't be easy to pressure the Husky guards into coughing the ball up. Jim Calhoun is a coach who likes to get the ball down the court as quickly as possible, so this team will not be overwhelmed with pace.

Driving down the lane will be difficult for Missouri, which takes away offensive options. Sure, they shot 53% against a team that allowed less than 37% on the year, but that team didn't have Thabeet. We're laying the points with U-Conn, the 5.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA Tournament Elite Eight betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: CONNECTICUT -5.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)