Opening Round Upset - Mississippi State vs. Washington Huskies

BetUS NCAA Basketball Odds: WASHINGTON -5.5, Total 148.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* MSU has won and covered its last six games

* MSU has played four of its last six games OVER the total

* WASH has won six of its last seven games SU

* WASH has played seven of its last nine games OVER the total

Geographically speaking, this is not a bad sub-regional spot for Washington, which surprised some people by winning 25 games and roaring to the Pac-10 regular season title, then offered a disappointment by dropping their second-round game in the conference tournament to Arizona State. The 37.5% they shot from the field was one of their worst figures of the season, but U-Dub had won its previous six games, with wins over USC, Arizona and Arizona State.

Mississippi State went through a rough stretch where it lost five out of six games, giving the Bulldogs little hope of making it to the NCAA's, but then they caught fire, with six straight wins, driving all the way through to the SEC championship, beating LSU and Tennessee in back-to-back games.

One of the strengths of Washington's attack is that the Huskies can bring offense from both the little guys and the big guys. Isaiah Thomas has made a real impression as a freshman, and he is Washington's leading scorer at 15.4 ppg. Justin Dentmon, his backcourt mate, is right with him at 15 ppg. The thing about U-Dub is that the guards like to penetrate and much of the time this creates an opening for one of the Pac-10's most imposing inside players, 6'7" Jon Brockman, who shot 52% and also pulled down 11.2 rebounds per game.

That's why a critical factor is that Mississippi State has the most dominant "eraser" in the college game in Jarvis Varnado, the 6'9" junior who led the nation in blocked shots with 4.7 per game. He has the ability to more than neutralize Brockman, and at the same time be a "policeman" for any guard driving down the lane. That could force U-Dub further outside, and remember that they are not very biog with hitting three-pointers (only 4.2 per game). The Bulldogs are more proficient from downtown (36%, 8.3 per game) and Varnado, a 61% career shooter, could surprise with his offense.

This game presents real upset possibilities. We're going with Mississippi State, the 5.5-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA Tournament sports betting odds.

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JAY'S PLAY: MISSISSIPPI STATE +5.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)